ElectionsWhat will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on September 15, 2026?Report estimate90%range 80% to 95%Free to readRead report
BaseWill the Base sequencer publish a decentralisation roadmap before the end of the quarter?Report estimate30%range 15% to 50%Free to readRead report
HealthHow many confirmed cases will the Salmonella outbreak reach in the UK?Report estimate85%range 80% to 95%Free to readRead report
TechWhen will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?Report estimate6%range 1% to 15%Free to readRead report
AIWill any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?$2.50 to go$37.50 of $40.00 funded3 fundersFund
ComputingWhen will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?$39.99 to go$0.01 of $40.00 funded1 funderFund
ClimateWill Homo sapiens go extinct before 2400?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed a month agoNo funders yetFund
ComputingWill the majority of global computing power be based on non-silicon hardware before the end of the 21st century?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed a month agoNo funders yetFund
ComputingWill a fault-tolerant quantum computer be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed a month agoNo funders yetFund
LAWWill Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2029?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed a month agoNo funders yetFund
ScienceWill at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
SocietyWhen will be the first year without war?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
ClimateWill there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
ComputingWill a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
CryptoWill a SHA-256 Collision or Preimage be Publicly Demonstrated before 2050?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
EconomyWill Nigeria's inflation rate fall below 15% during 2026?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
TechWhat is the next planet, besides Earth or Mars, that a human being will reach?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
