AIWill any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?$2.50 to go$37.50 of $40.00 funded3 fundersFund
ComputingWhen will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?$39.99 to go$0.01 of $40.00 funded1 funderFund
ComputingWill the majority of global computing power be based on non-silicon hardware before the end of the 21st century?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed a month agoNo funders yetFund
ScienceWill at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
TechWill 1,000,000 unmanned ground vehicles be deployed by Russian or Ukrainian forces during a single calendar year before 2031?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 5 months agoNo funders yetFund
PoliticsWill a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedListed 2 months agoNo funders yetFund
SportsWill an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?$40.00 to go$0.00 of $40.00 fundedNo funders yetFund
TechWill an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?$5.00 to go$0.00 of $5.00 fundedNo funders yetFund
ComputingWhich of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?$40.00 to go$0.00 of $40.00 fundedNo funders yetFund
AIAfter a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?$40.00 to go$0.00 of $40.00 fundedNo funders yetFund
ComputingWhen will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?$40.00 to go$0.00 of $40.00 fundedNo funders yetFund
ComputingWill there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?$40.00 to go$0.00 of $40.00 fundedNo funders yetFund
ComputingRagnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?$40.00 to go$0.00 of $40.00 fundedNo funders yetFund
ComputingWhen will AIs program programs that can program AIs?$40.00 to go$0.00 of $40.00 fundedNo funders yetFund
