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Map the ~40t/yr scandium market end to end: uses (SOFC/Al-Sc), China's April 2025 export controls (still in force), the Bloom collision (~220t needed vs ~240t world supply), every exposed company, and the tradeable expressions.

The answer

Verdict. Thesis real, instruments scarce: best structures are long NB into the EXIM close, the BE-puts-vs-NB/SRL pair, and SCY.V as the un-rerated cousin. No futures/ETP exists; REMX is not a proxy. Nov 2026 truce checkpoint is the dated catalyst.

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The Scandium Squeeze — Commodity Supply-Chain Dossier

Verdict. Thesis real, instruments scarce: best structures are long NB into the EXIM close, the BE-puts-vs-NB/SRL pair, and SCY.V as the un-rerated cousin. No futures/ETP exists; REMX is not a proxy. Nov 2026 truce checkpoint is the dated catalyst.

Full published report: https://scandium-dossier.us-east-1.gists.org