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Fervo IPO'd 13 May 2026 at $27 and trades ~$35 (~$10B) on ~$0.14M of 2025 revenue, with Cape Station under construction and a non-binding Google 3 GW framework. Decide whether it can 2x/10x and work out the float, the lockup, competitors, and the upside mechanics.

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Verdict. A call option, not an easy 2x. P(double,12mo) 0.23 vs P(halve,12mo) 0.48; 5x 0.07, 10x 0.025. ~205M shares unlock ~10 Nov into an ~80M float (Arnold/Centaurus among them). Cape first power 0.52, 500MW Google PPA 0.27, beats-QQQ 0.34. Starter size only; size for the lockup.

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Fervo Energy (FRVO) — Axion Equity Dossier (geothermal IPO, lockup + 10x)

Verdict. A call option, not an easy 2x. P(double,12mo) 0.23 vs P(halve,12mo) 0.48; 5x 0.07, 10x 0.025. ~205M shares unlock ~10 Nov into an ~80M float (Arnold/Centaurus among them). Cape first power 0.52, 500MW Google PPA 0.27, beats-QQQ 0.34. Starter size only; size for the lockup.

Full published report: https://frvo-dossier.us-east-1.gists.org