Earnings History Atlas: July 22 AMC and July 23 BMO
Verdict. USE AS AN EVENT-REACTION MAP, NOT A PRE-EVENT TRADE SIGNAL. Only 52.1% of latest earnings moves kept their direction through July 21; classify the causal update and live option surface before trading continuation or reversal.
Full published report: https://earnings-history-atlas.us-east-1.gists.org
Earnings event atlas · July 22 AMC / July 23 BMO
The full report
What happened at the last two earnings, and what happened next?
Every company in the 142-name slate is mapped to two prior reports, its immediate reaction, subsequent price path, QQQ-relative return, and recent correlations. The aim is to identify continuation, reversal, and shared-factor behavior before interpreting the next print.
142 companies with two events
3.4% median absolute reaction
52.1% reaction direction persisted
73.9% positive since latest event
Google is a two-axis test
The proposed binary misses the demand signal. A capex slowdown can raise Alphabet only if growth and utilization hold. If capex falls because demand is weak, both Alphabet and suppliers can decline. Continued capex helps Alphabet when monetization validates the spend, and hurts it when depreciation rises faster than returns.
| Capex | Monetization / demand | Alphabet | Suppliers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up or reaffirmed | Cloud, Search, ads, backlog and utilization accelerate | Positive or mixed-positive | Positive, led by the disclosed mix |
| Up or reaffirmed | Revenue and margins disappoint while depreciation rises | Negative | Near-term positive, longer-term fragile |
| Down | Same demand served with better utilization or cheaper compute | Positive | Negative for capacity suppliers |
| Down | Cloud, ads or AI usage weaken | Negative | Negative, especially high-expectation bottlenecks |
Twelve angles to read with capex
01 · Mix
What is being bought?
TPUs, merchant GPUs, memory, optics, networking, power, cooling, buildings, and land create different winners and different timing.
02 · Buyer
Internal or external demand?
DeepMind and Search inference are internal costs. Cloud customer workloads produce direct revenue and a cleaner return signal.
03 · Utilization
Scarcity or excess capacity?
Backlog conversion, deployment timing, capacity constraints, and rental pricing tell us whether installed compute is earning.
04 · Unit economics
Does AI improve incremental returns?
AI query cost, ad yield, paid subscriptions, Cloud margin, energy cost, and depreciation determine value creation.
05 · Expectations
What is already priced?
Continued aggressive spend is consensus. Guide delta and mix surprise matter more than the absolute number.
06 · Efficiency
Does cheaper inference shrink demand?
Better models reduce compute per task but can expand usage. Workload growth must be compared with cost per unit.
07 · Competition
Is a slowdown discipline or lost share?
A unilateral cut differs from a sector-wide cut. Read Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and neocloud demand alongside Google.
08 · Accounting lag
Cash flow and margins move differently
Lower capex helps cash flow quickly, but depreciation from prior installations continues to pressure earnings.
09 · Order quality
Are supplier backlogs durable?
Cancellations, prepayments, lead times, customer concentration, and inventory reveal whether orders are real or double booked.
10 · Second order
Which bottleneck is next?
Power, grid gear, optics, memory, cooling, construction, and networking react on different schedules.
11 · Financing
Who funds the buildout?
Equity issuance, debt, reduced buybacks, and interest expense can offset operating strength and change hyperscaler valuation.
12 · Accounting
Is reported EPS operating?
Private-company marks can create large headline EPS moves with no change in Search, Cloud, capex returns, or cash generation.
The starting bar is already high
Alphabet's live guide is $180B-$190B of 2026 capex after $91.4B in 2025, with a further significant increase expected in 2027. Q1 Cloud grew 63% to $20.0B and backlog exceeded $460B. Alphabet also announced an $80B equity-capital plan, making financing and dilution part of the capex trade. A flat reaffirmation is not automatically bullish for the supply chain. The decisive information is revenue per deployed dollar, backlog conversion, spend mix, financing, and the next marginal guide.
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+2.4%
gap +2.0% · then +29.7%
2026-01-27 · prior
-7.0%
gap +0.1% · total +4.9%
vs QQQ +20.9% LUV 0.79 · PKG 0.57 · HZO 0.57
ACI
Albertsons Companies, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-14 · latest*
-3.0%
gap -0.9% · then -9.9%
2026-01-07 · prior
-6.0%
gap +1.1% · total -14.0%
vs QQQ -22.7% INFY 0.45 · DGX 0.41 · EPRT 0.36
ACU
Acme United Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-4.5%
gap -2.8% · then +7.2%
2026-02-26 · prior
+0.9%
gap +1.0% · total +2.5%
vs QQQ -1.6% AMAL 0.55 · OSBC 0.54 · EGBN 0.53
ALLE
Allegion Public Limited Company
07-23 BMO
2026-04-28 · latest
-7.1%
gap -8.4% · then -0.4%
2026-02-17 · prior
-9.4%
gap -5.3% · total -23.5%
vs QQQ -8.2% SNA 0.59 · POOL 0.57 · FSV 0.57
AMAL
Amalgamated Financial Corp. Common Stock (DE)
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-4.6%
gap -9.6% · then +17.8%
2026-01-22 · prior
+6.7%
gap +0.0% · total +32.0%
vs QQQ +9.0% EGBN 0.86 · OSBC 0.86 · FRME 0.84
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+2.3%
gap +7.8% · then +19.0%
2026-02-26 · prior
+0.7%
gap +3.7% · total +2.4%
vs QQQ +10.2% LADR 0.45 · FSBC 0.45 · SON 0.45
AMP
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+1.0%
gap -0.1% · then +13.8%
2026-01-29 · prior
+4.3%
gap +7.6% · total +5.7%
vs QQQ +7.1% RJF 0.78 · SEIC 0.49 · BX 0.46
AON
Aon plc Class A
07-23 BMO
2026-05-01 · latest*
-0.0%
gap +4.8% · then +15.4%
2026-01-30 · prior
+2.0%
gap +1.2% · total +4.8%
vs QQQ +10.2% RLI 0.61 · ROP 0.60 · ELS 0.51
ARGX
argenx SE American Depositary Shares
07-23 BMO
2026-05-07 · latest*
-2.5%
gap +4.1% · then +11.1%
2026-02-26 · prior*
-5.6%
gap -1.9% · total +7.1%
vs QQQ +9.1% FCFS 0.35 · LMT 0.28 · RTX 0.28
ASPS
Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-4.7%
gap +4.4% · then +2.9%
2026-03-04 · prior*
-5.8%
gap +5.5% · total -10.1%
vs QQQ -5.9% AAL 0.30 · OSBC 0.30 · LUV 0.28
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-27 · latest
+5.3%
gap +2.0% · then +3.9%
2026-02-04 · prior*
-4.6%
gap -0.5% · total +7.2%
vs QQQ -3.9% EQR 0.95 · ELS 0.54 · EGP 0.51
BANR
Banner Corp.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+6.6%
gap +2.1% · then +4.4%
2026-01-21 · prior
+0.2%
gap -0.7% · total +7.1%
vs QQQ -4.4% CATY 0.84 · VLY 0.82 · OBK 0.81
BDN
Brandywine Realty Trust
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+0.3%
gap -2.7% · then +7.5%
2026-02-03 · prior*
+11.7%
gap +2.5% · total +11.7%
vs QQQ -1.3% SLG 0.67 · IBCP 0.64 · LOB 0.62
BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-0.3%
gap +3.5% · then +10.4%
2026-01-29 · prior
+7.1%
gap +3.5% · total +49.1%
vs QQQ +1.5% FULT 0.60 · DCOM 0.58 · HBAN 0.54
BPOP
Popular Inc
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+0.7%
gap +2.3% · then +15.4%
2026-01-27 · prior
+6.3%
gap +2.8% · total +40.2%
vs QQQ +6.6% FULT 0.85 · CATY 0.83 · HBAN 0.82
BWFG
Bankwell Financial Group Inc
07-23 BMO
2026-04-22 · latest
+1.9%
gap +0.3% · then +19.3%
2026-01-29 · prior
+1.7%
gap +0.2% · total +27.9%
vs QQQ +10.5% WTBA 0.82 · HBNC 0.81 · UVSP 0.80
BX
Blackstone Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-5.7%
gap -2.6% · then +1.5%
2026-01-29 · prior
-2.6%
gap +0.8% · total -15.4%
vs QQQ -7.3% SLG 0.52 · LAZ 0.51 · AMAL 0.49
CASH
Pathward Financial, Inc. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-11.0%
gap -3.0% · then +1.1%
2026-01-22 · prior
+7.3%
gap +2.8% · total +10.9%
vs QQQ -7.8% OSBC 0.85 · AMAL 0.76 · TCBX 0.73
CATY
Cathay General Bancorp
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+2.7%
gap +1.2% · then +12.3%
2026-01-22 · prior
-3.0%
gap +2.2% · total +18.7%
vs QQQ +3.5% STBA 0.90 · CNOB 0.89 · FULT 0.88
CBAN
Colony Bankcorp Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-4.0%
gap -4.8% · then +4.4%
2026-01-28 · prior
+5.0%
gap +2.0% · total +12.3%
vs QQQ -4.5% TCBX 0.74 · IBCP 0.72 · OSBC 0.72
CCI
Crown Castle Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+1.8%
gap +3.4% · then -12.9%
2026-02-04 · prior*
-9.0%
gap -7.4% · total -11.5%
vs QQQ -21.8% EQR 0.51 · AVB 0.46 · LADR 0.43
CCS
CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-7.1%
gap -9.9% · then +7.6%
2026-01-28 · prior
-0.0%
gap +3.0% · total -0.3%
vs QQQ -1.2% LUV 0.62 · SLG 0.59 · GGG 0.58
CIVB
Civista Bancshares, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-22 · latest
+3.4%
gap +0.9% · then +16.4%
2026-01-29 · prior
+5.8%
gap +1.5% · total +22.9%
vs QQQ +8.2% IBCP 0.84 · EFSC 0.83 · WTBA 0.80
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-20 · latest
-2.1%
gap -10.1% · then -4.9%
2026-02-09 · prior*
-16.4%
gap -11.1% · total -37.2%
vs QQQ -14.5% RS 0.67 · TECK 0.57 · FCX 0.54
CMCSA
Comcast Corp
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+7.7%
gap +3.8% · then -24.7%
2026-01-29 · prior
+2.9%
gap -2.8% · total -16.2%
vs QQQ -33.6% ESQ 0.62 · DCOM 0.59 · HFWA 0.52
CMS
CMS Energy Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-28 · latest
-0.2%
gap +1.5% · then -4.5%
2026-02-05 · prior*
+1.8%
gap +1.4% · total +1.3%
vs QQQ -12.3% ELS 0.65 · PCG 0.60 · EPRT 0.55
CNOB
Center Bancorp Inc
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+3.3%
gap +0.6% · then +15.5%
2026-01-29 · prior
-0.9%
gap -0.8% · total +20.0%
vs QQQ +6.7% CATY 0.89 · STBA 0.86 · FULT 0.84
COCO
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. Common Stock
07-23 BMO
2026-04-29 · latest
+29.7%
gap +17.4% · then +13.4%
2026-02-18 · prior
-11.4%
gap -2.6% · total +34.3%
vs QQQ +6.2% TMUS 0.32 · NOK 0.26 · DOW 0.25
CSX
CSX Corporation
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+6.9%
gap +5.3% · then +8.0%
2026-01-22 · prior
+2.4%
gap +3.3% · total +39.4%
vs QQQ -0.8% UNP 0.87 · NSC 0.86 · URI 0.69
CVBF
CVB Financial Corp
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-0.8%
gap +0.0% · then +10.9%
2026-01-21 · prior
-0.4%
gap +0.8% · total +7.8%
vs QQQ +2.1% FRME 0.90 · STBA 0.89 · FULT 0.86
CX
Cemex S.A.B. de C.V.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest*
+6.3%
gap +0.1% · then +1.5%
2026-02-05 · prior*
-1.2%
gap -2.5% · total +5.0%
vs QQQ -7.3% TECK 0.60 · SNA 0.57 · DOV 0.56
CYH
Community Health Systems, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-21 · latest
-12.6%
gap -7.6% · then +18.5%
2026-02-18 · prior
+5.4%
gap -6.9% · total -3.9%
vs QQQ +10.2% SON 0.52 · EPRT 0.47 · ELS 0.47
DCOM
Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+4.3%
gap -2.0% · then +7.6%
2026-01-21 · prior
+8.6%
gap +6.0% · total +33.4%
vs QQQ -1.2% FULT 0.86 · HFWA 0.85 · CATY 0.84
DGX
Quest Diagnostics Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-21 · latest
+4.4%
gap +3.5% · then +0.9%
2026-02-10 · prior
+7.4%
gap +1.8% · total +8.2%
vs QQQ -9.2% ELS 0.53 · POOL 0.51 · ORI 0.49
DOV
Dover Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+5.5%
gap +3.0% · then -7.3%
2026-01-29 · prior
-1.7%
gap +1.2% · total +2.6%
vs QQQ -16.2% SNA 0.73 · URI 0.67 · PKG 0.61
DOW
Dow Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-0.7%
gap +1.5% · then -20.9%
2026-01-29 · prior
-2.2%
gap -4.2% · total +9.7%
vs QQQ -29.8% TTE 0.63 · KMI 0.42 · LBRT 0.40
EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services Corporation
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+0.2%
gap +1.9% · then +15.7%
2026-01-26 · prior
+2.0%
gap +0.5% · total +19.4%
vs QQQ +6.9% HBNC 0.88 · STBA 0.87 · UVSP 0.87
EGBN
Eagle Bancorp Inc
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-2.7%
gap -2.0% · then +4.2%
2026-01-21 · prior
+16.0%
gap +9.4% · total +13.4%
vs QQQ -4.6% AMAL 0.86 · QCRH 0.84 · HBNC 0.84
EGP
EastGroup Properties Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-0.2%
gap -0.2% · then +10.4%
2026-02-04 · prior*
+2.9%
gap +0.1% · total +20.9%
vs QQQ +1.5% FR 0.88 · EPRT 0.68 · GTY 0.61
ELS
Equity Lifestyle Properties, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-21 · latest
-3.4%
gap -0.4% · then +3.3%
2026-01-28 · prior
+1.4%
gap +1.1% · total +4.8%
vs QQQ -4.9% EPRT 0.72 · CMS 0.65 · GTY 0.62
EPRT
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-1.8%
gap +1.7% · then +5.6%
2026-02-11 · prior*
+0.3%
gap +0.7% · total +5.4%
vs QQQ -3.2% GTY 0.79 · NTST 0.74 · ELS 0.72
EQR
Equity Residential
07-22 AMC
2026-04-28 · latest
+0.4%
gap -1.3% · then +4.4%
2026-02-05 · prior*
+3.4%
gap -0.5% · total +10.6%
vs QQQ -2.8% AVB 0.95 · ELS 0.60 · EPRT 0.53
ESQ
Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+4.3%
gap +3.1% · then +7.1%
2026-01-22 · prior
+0.7%
gap -1.1% · total +12.0%
vs QQQ -1.7% DCOM 0.82 · HFWA 0.79 · FULT 0.74
FAF
First American Financial Corporation
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+3.5%
gap -1.9% · then +4.1%
2026-02-11 · prior*
+2.8%
gap +3.0% · total +11.4%
vs QQQ -4.8% STC 0.66 · LADR 0.42 · ROL 0.41
FCFS
FirstCash Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+3.3%
gap +4.9% · then -0.2%
2026-02-05 · prior*
+3.3%
gap -2.4% · total +23.2%
vs QQQ -9.0% DOV 0.39 · URI 0.37 · LAZ 0.36
FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares Inc
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-3.4%
gap -1.4% · then +4.8%
2026-01-23 · prior
-8.5%
gap -5.3% · total -6.0%
vs QQQ -4.0% QCRH 0.77 · AMAL 0.76 · TCBX 0.75
FCX
Freeport-McMoran Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-12.6%
gap -11.5% · then +1.8%
2026-01-22 · prior
-2.9%
gap +0.3% · total +3.3%
vs QQQ -7.1% TECK 0.74 · NVEC 0.66 · CLF 0.54
FR
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-0.8%
gap +2.0% · then +8.9%
2026-02-04 · prior*
+2.2%
gap +0.8% · total +17.1%
vs QQQ +0.1% EGP 0.88 · EPRT 0.61 · HBAN 0.59
FRME
First Merchants Corp
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-1.7%
gap -2.0% · then +10.9%
2026-01-26 · prior
+0.5%
gap +0.8% · total +15.8%
vs QQQ +2.1% STBA 0.90 · CVBF 0.90 · EFSC 0.85
FSBC
Five Star Bancorp Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-27 · latest
-1.2%
gap +1.5% · then +22.4%
2026-01-26 · prior
-0.6%
gap +0.5% · total +27.1%
vs QQQ +14.6% EFSC 0.77 · UVSP 0.77 · IBCP 0.77
FSV
FirstService Corporation Common Shares
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest*
-0.3%
gap -0.4% · then -3.9%
2026-02-04 · prior*
+6.8%
gap +1.4% · total -7.3%
vs QQQ -12.8% ALLE 0.57 · SLG 0.54 · POOL 0.51
FULT
Fulton Financial Corp
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+1.1%
gap +2.1% · then +11.5%
2026-01-21 · prior
+2.6%
gap +0.2% · total +20.0%
vs QQQ +2.7% HBAN 0.89 · HFWA 0.89 · CATY 0.88
GGG
Graco Inc
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-3.9%
gap -3.8% · then -11.0%
2026-01-26 · prior
+1.0%
gap +1.4% · total -15.7%
vs QQQ -19.8% SNA 0.58 · CCS 0.58 · HON 0.57
GL
Globe Life Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+1.8%
gap -0.8% · then +19.7%
2026-02-04 · prior*
+1.5%
gap +3.0% · total +27.3%
vs QQQ +10.9% GTY 0.49 · OBK 0.45 · DCOM 0.44
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-29 · latest
+10.0%
gap +6.9% · then -9.8%
2026-02-04 · prior*
-0.5%
gap -6.3% · total +4.2%
vs QQQ -16.0% NVCR 0.42 · QS 0.41 · LAZ 0.41
GSHD
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+11.4%
gap +17.1% · then +5.9%
2026-02-17 · prior
-6.4%
gap +7.2% · total +6.2%
vs QQQ -3.0% WCN 0.57 · ROP 0.53 · RLI 0.51
GTY
Getty Realty Corp.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+1.7%
gap +4.6% · then +8.4%
2026-02-11 · prior*
+6.3%
gap +2.6% · total +17.8%
vs QQQ -0.4% EPRT 0.79 · NTST 0.69 · ELS 0.62
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares Inc
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+0.1%
gap -0.2% · then +8.0%
2026-01-22 · prior
-6.0%
gap -2.5% · total -3.2%
vs QQQ -0.9% FULT 0.89 · VLY 0.84 · TCBI 0.82
HBNC
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+1.4%
gap -0.3% · then +14.7%
2026-01-21 · prior
+2.1%
gap +1.4% · total +11.9%
vs QQQ +5.8% UVSP 0.92 · QCRH 0.90 · EFSC 0.88
HFWA
Heritage Financial Corp
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+1.3%
gap -0.1% · then +9.8%
2026-01-22 · prior
+7.2%
gap +2.6% · total +15.8%
vs QQQ +0.9% FULT 0.89 · KRNY 0.89 · STBA 0.88
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-05-05 · latest*
+8.2%
gap +0.5% · then +13.3%
2026-02-10 · prior
+4.0%
gap -1.8% · total +41.3%
vs QQQ +9.3% HZO 0.41 · PKG 0.37 · THRM 0.34
HON
Honeywell International, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-2.6%
gap -5.5% · then +7.2%
2026-01-29 · prior
+4.9%
gap +2.1% · total +6.1%
vs QQQ -1.6% GGG 0.57 · AAL 0.55 · LUV 0.54
HSCS
HeartSciences Inc. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-03-16 · latest
-0.4%
gap -2.2% · then -7.2%
2025-12-15 · prior
-6.5%
gap -3.6% · total -0.4%
vs QQQ -24.7% ROP 0.36 · TMUS 0.33 · GTY 0.33
HYFT
MindWalk Holdings Corp. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-03-12 · latest
+2.3%
gap -6.3% · then +11.5%
2025-12-15 · prior
+1.1%
gap +12.4% · total -17.5%
vs QQQ -7.3% QS 0.40 · TSLA 0.38 · FCX 0.36
HZO
MarineMax, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+1.1%
gap +0.4% · then +12.2%
2026-01-29 · prior
-8.2%
gap -3.2% · total +23.7%
vs QQQ +3.4% CCS 0.58 · AAL 0.57 · LUV 0.56
IBCP
Independent Bank Corp.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-1.0%
gap +0.5% · then +9.6%
2026-01-22 · prior
+1.0%
gap -0.6% · total +4.1%
vs QQQ +0.8% EFSC 0.86 · CIVB 0.84 · HBNC 0.84
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-8.3%
gap -7.8% · then -8.9%
2026-01-28 · prior
+5.1%
gap +8.1% · total -28.4%
vs QQQ -17.7% NOW 0.54 · ROP 0.47 · INFY 0.42
IMA
ImageneBio, Inc. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-05-07 · latest*
-10.5%
gap -3.9% · then +13.4%
2026-03-10 · prior
+2.5%
gap +0.7% · total +1.4%
vs QQQ +13.7% QS 0.41 · FCX 0.30 · RTX 0.30
IMAX
Imax Corp
07-23 BMO
2026-04-30 · latest
-4.0%
gap -6.6% · then +3.7%
2026-02-25 · prior
+14.4%
gap +4.0% · total +3.6%
vs QQQ -1.5% LADR 0.29 · BPOP 0.29 · GL 0.28
INFY
Infosys Limited American Depositary Shares
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest*
-4.0%
gap -6.7% · then -13.8%
2026-01-14 · prior*
+10.4%
gap +4.9% · total -36.3%
vs QQQ -22.6% ROP 0.52 · AON 0.50 · ACI 0.45
INMD
InMode Ltd. Ordinary Shares
07-23 BMO
2026-05-06 · latest*
-5.6%
gap -6.9% · then +13.0%
2026-02-10 · prior
-3.3%
gap -4.4% · total +1.6%
vs QQQ +11.1% CCS 0.42 · TMO 0.39 · DGX 0.39
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+1.1%
gap +3.4% · then -0.3%
2026-02-18 · prior
-8.8%
gap -11.7% · total +17.9%
vs QQQ -9.1% NVEC 0.62 · STM 0.57 · TECK 0.55
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-0.3%
gap +1.4% · then +2.0%
2026-01-21 · prior
+3.9%
gap +1.9% · total +13.3%
vs QQQ -6.8% CMS 0.50 · PCG 0.43 · DOW 0.42
KNX
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+2.8%
gap +3.4% · then +16.6%
2026-01-21 · prior
+2.6%
gap +1.0% · total +32.4%
vs QQQ +7.8% CSX 0.62 · R 0.56 · URI 0.44
KRNY
Kearny Financial Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+2.3%
gap +0.0% · then +18.6%
2026-01-22 · prior
-1.9%
gap +0.2% · total +15.6%
vs QQQ +9.7% HFWA 0.89 · FULT 0.87 · STBA 0.87
LADR
LADDER CAPITAL CORP
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+2.0%
gap +0.5% · then -5.7%
2026-02-05 · prior*
-6.5%
gap -2.4% · total -10.9%
vs QQQ -14.6% STC 0.64 · WTBA 0.62 · SLG 0.61
LAZ
Lazard, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-05-01 · latest*
-6.9%
gap -6.4% · then -3.6%
2026-01-29 · prior
+2.2%
gap +0.9% · total -17.3%
vs QQQ -8.8% TECK 0.55 · BX 0.51 · CX 0.46
LBRT
Liberty Energy Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+9.9%
gap -6.0% · then -23.0%
2026-01-28 · prior
+16.2%
gap +10.0% · total +14.1%
vs QQQ -31.9% TTE 0.53 · STM 0.52 · OII 0.49
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corp.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-4.6%
gap -3.9% · then -4.3%
2026-01-29 · prior
+4.2%
gap +2.0% · total -15.1%
vs QQQ -13.1% RTX 0.73 · NVCR 0.45 · AON 0.37
LOB
Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+3.3%
gap +0.8% · then +11.2%
2026-01-21 · prior
+4.5%
gap +2.6% · total +6.8%
vs QQQ +2.3% HBNC 0.85 · STBA 0.85 · UVSP 0.85
LUV
Southwest Airlines Co.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-4.1%
gap -2.8% · then +29.0%
2026-01-28 · prior
+18.7%
gap +6.2% · total +19.2%
vs QQQ +20.1% AAL 0.79 · CCS 0.62 · WH 0.57
LVS
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-8.6%
gap -9.7% · then -12.5%
2026-01-28 · prior
-14.0%
gap -9.4% · total -25.8%
vs QQQ -21.3% MEDP 0.60 · TMO 0.54 · NOW 0.49
MBLY
Mobileye Global Inc. Class A Common Stock
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+10.1%
gap +13.3% · then +3.3%
2026-01-22 · prior
-3.4%
gap -5.5% · total -17.4%
vs QQQ -5.5% TECK 0.56 · STM 0.51 · TXN 0.47
MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-22.6%
gap -26.2% · then +35.1%
2026-02-09 · prior*
-15.9%
gap -7.8% · total +0.2%
vs QQQ +26.3% TMO 0.71 · CASH 0.66 · WEX 0.61
MMLP
Martin Midstream Partners LP
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-8.6%
gap -2.5% · then -8.6%
2026-02-18 · prior
-0.3%
gap -1.7% · total -20.4%
vs QQQ -17.4% RGP 0.43 · MEDP 0.32 · AON 0.32
MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+14.2%
gap +7.7% · then +29.7%
2026-02-05 · prior*
-25.5%
gap -28.8% · total +28.1%
vs QQQ +20.8% URI 0.51 · WCN 0.39 · WST 0.36
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc. Common Stock
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+0.8%
gap +1.3% · then +3.7%
2026-01-29 · prior
-0.6%
gap +1.1% · total -8.6%
vs QQQ -5.2% AMP 0.45 · ROP 0.41 · ROL 0.40
NOK
Nokia Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest*
+4.8%
gap +9.3% · then +2.9%
2026-01-29 · prior*
-7.8%
gap -7.0% · total +55.9%
vs QQQ -5.9% STM 0.70 · TXN 0.55 · NVEC 0.48
NOW
SERVICENOW, INC.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-17.7%
gap -15.3% · then +20.4%
2026-01-28 · prior
-9.9%
gap -8.6% · total -21.3%
vs QQQ +11.5% WEX 0.54 · IBM 0.54 · MEDP 0.50
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corp.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-24 · latest
-0.5%
gap +0.6% · then +3.6%
2026-01-29 · prior
+2.0%
gap -0.2% · total +16.5%
vs QQQ -3.2% UNP 0.96 · CSX 0.86 · URI 0.61
NTST
NetSTREIT Corp.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-20 · latest
+0.1%
gap -1.5% · then +4.8%
2026-02-10 · prior
-0.1%
gap -0.1% · total +13.7%
vs QQQ -5.2% EPRT 0.74 · GTY 0.69 · ELS 0.60
NVCR
NovoCure Limited Ordinary Shares
07-23 BMO
2026-04-30 · latest
+27.5%
gap +12.0% · then +5.2%
2026-02-26 · prior
-8.3%
gap -11.6% · total +6.7%
vs QQQ -1.0% RTX 0.48 · LMT 0.45 · GOOGL 0.42
NVEC
NVE Corp
07-22 AMC
2026-05-06 · latest*
+2.7%
gap -4.6% · then -0.5%
2026-01-21 · prior
+12.1%
gap +13.3% · total +28.8%
vs QQQ -2.5% TSLA 0.68 · FCX 0.66 · STM 0.63
OBK
Origin Bancorp, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+4.0%
gap +0.5% · then +11.3%
2026-01-28 · prior
+4.5%
gap +1.9% · total +27.2%
vs QQQ +2.4% UVSP 0.86 · HBNC 0.85 · LOB 0.84
OII
Oceaneering International Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-1.2%
gap -5.8% · then +17.5%
2026-02-18 · prior
+9.3%
gap +0.5% · total +34.9%
vs QQQ +8.6% LBRT 0.49 · KALU 0.36 · NVEC 0.35
ORI
Old Republic International Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-5.2%
gap -1.5% · then +5.2%
2026-01-22 · prior
-9.3%
gap -12.2% · total -2.7%
vs QQQ -3.7% RLI 0.68 · EPRT 0.67 · RNR 0.60
OSBC
Old Second Bancorp Inc
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-6.4%
gap -6.4% · then +19.3%
2026-01-21 · prior
-1.0%
gap +1.5% · total +10.3%
vs QQQ +10.5% AMAL 0.86 · CASH 0.85 · FRME 0.83
PCG
PG&E Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-0.3%
gap +0.3% · then +3.9%
2026-02-12 · prior
+2.7%
gap +0.8% · total +2.3%
vs QQQ -4.9% CMS 0.60 · ELS 0.45 · EPRT 0.44
PKG
Packaging Corp of America
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+4.8%
gap +3.8% · then +6.1%
2026-01-27 · prior
-2.7%
gap -1.6% · total +2.1%
vs QQQ -2.7% DOV 0.61 · VLY 0.59 · AAL 0.57
PNFP
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+3.5%
gap +1.0% · then -2.3%
2026-01-21 · prior
-4.1%
gap +0.0% · total -4.8%
vs QQQ -11.1% FULT 0.75 · VLY 0.74 · CATY 0.74
POOL
Pool Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-2.4%
gap +3.4% · then -14.1%
2026-02-19 · prior
-14.5%
gap -10.7% · total -23.1%
vs QQQ -23.0% ALLE 0.57 · FSV 0.51 · DGX 0.51
QCRH
QCR Holdings Inc
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-0.5%
gap +0.9% · then +10.0%
2026-01-27 · prior
+1.5%
gap +1.1% · total +10.6%
vs QQQ +1.2% HBNC 0.90 · STBA 0.89 · EGBN 0.84
QS
QuantumScape Corporation Class A Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+1.4%
gap +32.1% · then -18.4%
2026-02-11 · prior*
-12.0%
gap -7.3% · total -31.4%
vs QQQ -27.2% RELL 0.65 · TECK 0.63 · STM 0.55
R
Ryder System, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+6.6%
gap +2.9% · then +13.2%
2026-02-11 · prior*
+2.4%
gap -3.6% · total +29.4%
vs QQQ +4.3% DOV 0.58 · KNX 0.56 · THRM 0.53
RELL
Richardson Electronics Ltd
07-22 AMC
2026-04-08 · latest*
+22.7%
gap +14.8% · then +19.1%
2026-01-07 · prior
-11.7%
gap -9.8% · total +47.1%
vs QQQ +2.9% QS 0.65 · STM 0.62 · TSLA 0.56
RGP
Resources Connection
07-22 AMC
2026-04-08 · latest*
-1.6%
gap +9.4% · then +34.5%
2026-01-07 · prior
-14.6%
gap -12.7% · total -11.6%
vs QQQ +18.3% CBAN 0.46 · NOW 0.44 · MMLP 0.43
RJF
Raymond James Financial, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-0.7%
gap -1.5% · then +9.5%
2026-01-28 · prior
-0.4%
gap -0.2% · total -0.2%
vs QQQ +0.6% AMP 0.78 · SEIC 0.49 · BX 0.48
RLI
RLI Corp.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-3.8%
gap -1.8% · then +9.6%
2026-01-21 · prior
-3.1%
gap -2.6% · total +1.9%
vs QQQ +0.7% ORI 0.68 · AON 0.61 · RNR 0.56
RNR
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-28 · latest
-2.2%
gap -6.6% · then +5.7%
2026-02-03 · prior*
+5.0%
gap +1.4% · total +12.3%
vs QQQ -1.4% ORI 0.60 · RLI 0.56 · NTST 0.50
ROL
Rollins, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+3.0%
gap -0.8% · then -23.0%
2026-02-11 · prior*
-10.5%
gap -15.2% · total -33.1%
vs QQQ -31.9% STC 0.59 · WCN 0.56 · FR 0.50
ROP
Roper Technologies, Inc. Common Stock
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-0.3%
gap +4.0% · then -3.6%
2026-01-27 · prior
-9.6%
gap -9.8% · total -14.2%
vs QQQ -12.4% AON 0.60 · GSHD 0.53 · INFY 0.52
RS
Reliance, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-1.8%
gap +2.6% · then +11.3%
2026-02-18 · prior
-2.7%
gap -1.3% · total +14.0%
vs QQQ +2.4% CLF 0.67 · KALU 0.49 · CX 0.44
RTX
RTX Corporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-21 · latest
-4.4%
gap -0.6% · then +3.5%
2026-01-27 · prior
+3.7%
gap +2.8% · total -0.2%
vs QQQ -6.6% LMT 0.73 · NVCR 0.48 · HON 0.47
SEIC
SEI Investments Co
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+7.4%
gap +5.1% · then +7.2%
2026-01-28 · prior
+2.3%
gap +3.0% · total +13.4%
vs QQQ -1.6% UNP 0.50 · BANR 0.49 · AMP 0.49
SHG
Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd
07-23 BMO
2026-05-15 · latest*
-1.9%
gap -2.5% · then +12.1%
2026-02-05 · prior*
+2.0%
gap -0.1% · total +18.7%
vs QQQ +12.1% BX 0.45 · LAZ 0.44 · FR 0.41
SLG
SL Green Realty Corp.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-15 · latest*
-2.0%
gap +0.6% · then +24.5%
2026-01-28 · prior
+2.2%
gap +2.4% · total +16.7%
vs QQQ +13.8% BDN 0.67 · EGBN 0.62 · LADR 0.61
SNA
Snap-on Incorporated
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+2.2%
gap +4.8% · then +3.4%
2026-02-05 · prior*
-3.2%
gap +1.6% · total +5.5%
vs QQQ -5.4% DOV 0.73 · TCBI 0.62 · FULT 0.60
SON
Sonoco Products Company
07-22 AMC
2026-04-21 · latest
-16.2%
gap -7.0% · then +15.0%
2026-02-16 · prior
+1.6%
gap +0.2% · total -3.5%
vs QQQ +6.8% PKG 0.56 · CYH 0.52 · ELS 0.51
STBA
S&T Bancorp Inc
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+0.3%
gap +0.0% · then +14.5%
2026-01-22 · prior
+2.9%
gap +0.8% · total +18.9%
vs QQQ +5.7% FRME 0.90 · CATY 0.90 · QCRH 0.89
STC
Stewart Information Services Corporation
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+3.9%
gap -3.0% · then -1.1%
2026-02-04 · prior*
+2.9%
gap +2.0% · total +1.8%
vs QQQ -10.0% FAF 0.66 · LADR 0.64 · WTBA 0.63
STM
STMicroelectronics N.V.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest*
+10.8%
gap +7.3% · then +31.6%
2026-01-29 · prior*
-5.6%
gap -6.8% · total +115.7%
vs QQQ +22.8% TXN 0.77 · NOK 0.70 · TECK 0.63
TCBI
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-23 · latest
+1.0%
gap +0.2% · then +0.1%
2026-01-22 · prior
-0.0%
gap +1.2% · total +1.3%
vs QQQ -8.8% FULT 0.86 · HFWA 0.83 · CATY 0.83
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-4.7%
gap -0.8% · then +3.7%
2026-01-21 · prior
+5.2%
gap +0.0% · total -0.4%
vs QQQ -5.1% OSBC 0.78 · AMAL 0.77 · IBCP 0.77
TECK
Teck Resources Limited
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+2.5%
gap +3.1% · then -6.5%
2026-02-19 · prior
-0.1%
gap -4.9% · total -4.3%
vs QQQ -15.3% FCX 0.74 · QS 0.63 · STM 0.63
THRM
Gentherm Inc
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+3.0%
gap +7.8% · then +23.7%
2026-02-19 · prior
+1.3%
gap +0.4% · total +18.5%
vs QQQ +14.9% VC 0.59 · R 0.53 · TECK 0.53
TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
-9.2%
gap -8.0% · then +12.2%
2026-01-29 · prior
-2.6%
gap -3.7% · total -13.9%
vs QQQ +3.3% MEDP 0.71 · CASH 0.60 · GGG 0.55
TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-28 · latest
+6.1%
gap +3.8% · then -3.7%
2026-02-11 · prior*
+5.1%
gap -4.1% · total -4.3%
vs QQQ -10.9% EPRT 0.47 · CCI 0.38 · EQR 0.38
TSCO
Tractor Supply Co
07-23 BMO
2026-04-21 · latest
-11.7%
gap -4.9% · then -25.1%
2026-01-29 · prior
-7.6%
gap -4.1% · total -46.2%
vs QQQ -35.1% ESQ 0.41 · BWFG 0.39 · RLI 0.38
TSLA
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-3.6%
gap -3.2% · then +1.4%
2026-01-28 · prior
-3.5%
gap +1.5% · total -12.2%
vs QQQ -7.4% NVEC 0.68 · STM 0.57 · RELL 0.56
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
07-23 BMO
2026-04-29 · latest*
+1.3%
gap +0.8% · then -9.4%
2026-02-11 · prior*
+4.1%
gap +1.5% · total +11.9%
vs QQQ -16.6% DOW 0.63 · LBRT 0.53 · KMI 0.33
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+19.4%
gap +10.2% · then +3.2%
2026-01-27 · prior
+9.9%
gap +3.7% · total +48.1%
vs QQQ -5.6% STM 0.77 · URI 0.66 · VC 0.62
UNP
Union Pacific Corp.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+8.8%
gap +5.4% · then +8.1%
2026-01-27 · prior
+0.7%
gap +1.8% · total +27.0%
vs QQQ -0.8% NSC 0.96 · CSX 0.87 · URI 0.61
URI
United Rentals, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+22.9%
gap +17.5% · then +2.7%
2026-01-28 · prior
-12.9%
gap -6.4% · total +12.2%
vs QQQ -6.1% CSX 0.69 · DOV 0.67 · TXN 0.66
UVSP
Univest Financial Corporation Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
+2.1%
gap +3.8% · then +18.4%
2026-01-28 · prior
-2.1%
gap -0.4% · total +32.9%
vs QQQ +9.6% HBNC 0.92 · STBA 0.89 · WTBA 0.89
VC
VISTEON CORPORATION
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+9.4%
gap -2.0% · then -4.9%
2026-02-19 · prior
-11.5%
gap -6.3% · total -2.0%
vs QQQ -13.7% TXN 0.62 · THRM 0.59 · STM 0.51
VLY
Valley National Bancorp
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+3.9%
gap +3.5% · then +6.6%
2026-01-29 · prior
+3.3%
gap +3.3% · total +19.6%
vs QQQ -2.2% CATY 0.88 · FULT 0.87 · HBAN 0.84
VTMX
Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B de C.V., American Depositary Shares, each representing ten (10) Common Shares
07-22 AMC
2026-04-23 · latest*
+2.3%
gap +1.7% · then -6.8%
2026-02-19 · prior
+6.9%
gap +0.8% · total +0.4%
vs QQQ -13.6% CX 0.44 · KALU 0.43 · TECK 0.34
WCN
Waste Connections, Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest*
+7.9%
gap +3.8% · then -0.3%
2026-02-11 · prior*
-8.2%
gap -0.9% · total -1.9%
vs QQQ -9.1% GSHD 0.57 · ROL 0.56 · CMS 0.52
WEX
WEX Inc.
07-22 AMC
2026-04-22 · latest
-16.3%
gap -4.5% · then +4.0%
2026-02-04 · prior*
-0.2%
gap -2.6% · total +8.1%
vs QQQ -4.8% MEDP 0.61 · CASH 0.57 · NOW 0.54
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Common Stock
07-22 AMC
2026-04-29 · latest
-3.2%
gap -0.7% · then -7.0%
2026-02-18 · prior
+5.6%
gap +2.8% · total -5.6%
vs QQQ -13.1% LUV 0.57 · AAL 0.52 · FSV 0.49
WST
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+12.9%
gap +12.2% · then +16.0%
2026-02-12 · prior*
-1.0%
gap +1.6% · total +45.9%
vs QQQ +7.2% URI 0.62 · BANR 0.47 · DCOM 0.46
WTBA
West Bancorporation
07-23 BMO
2026-04-23 · latest
+3.5%
gap +0.3% · then +10.4%
2026-01-29 · prior
+4.2%
gap +1.5% · total +21.0%
vs QQQ +1.5% UVSP 0.89 · HBNC 0.87 · STBA 0.84
No companies match this filter.
Cluster paths
The immediate reaction persisted through July 21 only 52.1% of the time. NOW and MEDP were large reversals. STM and MOH were strong continuations. GOOGL and CMCSA gave back positive earnings moves. This makes the causal content of the report more important than the sign of the first day.
AI, cloud and semiconductors
10
Median reaction 8.0% · since +2.1% · 60.0% positive
Airlines and travel
4
Median reaction 6.3% · since +11.0% · 50.0% positive
Communications and media
4
Median reaction 5.6% · since -8.3% · 25.0% positive
Consumer and discretionary
6
Median reaction 8.0% · since +3.7% · 50.0% positive
Financials
41
Median reaction 3.0% · since +9.6% · 95.1% positive
Healthcare
6
Median reaction 8.7% · since +14.1% · 100.0% positive
Metals, energy and industrial demand
16
Median reaction 2.6% · since +2.4% · 62.5% positive
Other
45
Median reaction 3.0% · since +5.7% · 62.2% positive
Real estate
10
Median reaction 1.9% · since +6.5% · 100.0% positive
Correlation is context, not causality
The strongest stable pairs are economically coherent, including NSC/UNP and AVB/EQR. In the AI subset, TXN/STM correlation is 0.77 over 63 sessions, while NOW/TXN is -0.55. Enterprise software and physical compute can move in opposite directions even when both are called AI beneficiaries.
Method and limitations
AMC reactions use the next trading session; BMO reactions use the same session. When an archived event lacked a time label, the issuer's verified upcoming session was used and retained as an explicit inference. Prices are Massive adjusted daily OHLC bars through July 21. Correlations use daily returns over 21 and 63 sessions. They measure co-movement, not causal read-through. Two events per company are descriptive and cannot calibrate an earnings distribution.
Historical dates are the merged Finnhub and archived Nasdaq calendars. Alphabet's live baseline comes from its official Q1 2026 SEC release and June financing release. Any options action still requires fresh simultaneous quotes and complete payoff arithmetic.
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"question": "Using the prior two earnings reactions, post-event paths, QQQ-relative returns, and correlations for all 142 companies, what should we infer for the July 22 AMC and July 23 BMO releases? Analyze Google as the key AI-capex information event, challenge the binary capex thesis, identify non-obvious causal channels and cross-instrument read-throughs, and specify evidence-contingent post-release actions. Do not invent current option quotes or publish an exact trade whose economics are not supported.",
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"actual_model": "anthropic/claude-opus-4.8",
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"decision_tests": [
"If capex raised >$185B AND Cloud \u226548% with RPO acceleration \u2192 treat as demand-validation (H2): do not short suppliers; go GOOGL long only if reaction < implied move and margin flat/up.",
"If capex held/cut AND buyback raised AND Cloud decel \u2192 capital-discipline (H3): GOOGL can rise on FCF; do not short GOOGL; avoid supplier longs.",
"If GOOGL reaction \u2265 +8% with flat margin and no RPO accel \u2192 fade candidate (H10): mean-revert only on confirmed macro rotation, else stand down.",
"If TXN moves opposite GOOGL same night \u2192 confirms mismatch (H4/H9): drop TXN as AI read-through; treat as industrial signal.",
"If July 23 semis (STM/NOK/INFY) fail to co-move with GOOGL beyond 1\u03c3 \u2192 confirm weak read-through (H5): no cross-instrument trade.",
"Execute a defined-risk GOOGL trade only if live straddle-implied move is below the evidence-based reaction distribution AND a channel is identified; otherwise no trade.",
"If Cloud margin compresses despite capex hold \u2192 bearish path bias, but size small given April fade and depreciation-lag uncertainty (H7).",
"If cut-odds jump into the window \u2192 prioritize the rate cluster (banks/REITs) driving 132 names; deprioritize AI thesis for the session (H6).",
"If supply-constraint reaffirmed AND a power/PPA announcement lands \u2192 express energy channel (PCG/CMS) rather than semis, if liquidity supports (H8).",
"Never pair GOOGL against a ~0.4-correlation universe name as a hedge\u2014residuals fail; hedge only with QQQ/index.",
"If both capex and demand legs ambiguous \u2192 no directional trade; seek relative-value only if a stable pair (e.g., NSC/UNP 0.96) breaks.",
"Hold beyond 5 days only if reaction sign is confirmed by Cloud/margin fundamentals, given 54% base-rate persistence."
],
"evidence_plan": [
"Extract July 22 capex figure vs $175-185B and any change in the 60/40 server/data-center mix.",
"Pull Cloud growth vs prior 48%, Cloud operating margin, and RPO/backlog; compute backlog-to-2026-capex coverage.",
"Capture management language on supply-constraint, TPU-vs-GPU allocation, and depreciation/opex guidance.",
"Reconstruct drivers of the Feb -2.0% and April +10%/-9.8% moves from transcripts/flow to date the regime.",
"Source live GOOGL and TXN ATM straddle-implied moves at cutoff (no invented quotes) vs history (+10/-2) and 6.7% median.",
"Map revenue exposure to hyperscaler capex for TXN, STM, NOK, MBLY, INFY, NOW, IBM to validate/reject read-through tags.",
"Estimate GOOGL beta/residual vs QQQ and vs the AI cluster over 21/63d to quantify hedgeability and idiosyncratic share.",
"Assemble July 22-23 calendar (TXN same night; STM/NOK/INFY/MBLY next BMO) to sequence read-through windows.",
"Read front-end curve and cut odds into the window to size the competing rate-tape driver for banks/REITs.",
"Collect data-center power/PPA news and PCG/CMS exposure for the energy channel.",
"Event-study external mega-cap prints: reaction and 4-week path conditioned on capex-raise vs -hold.",
"Verify option-chain depth, spreads, and borrow for any candidate instrument before sizing."
],
"hypotheses": [
"H1 Substitution/zero-sum (user thesis): capex is an FCF transfer; maintain\u2192hyperscaler down/suppliers up, slow\u2192reverse. Falsifier: GOOGL and levered suppliers co-rise on strong Cloud demand.",
"H2 Demand-validation/non-zero-sum: capex level proxies AI demand; repeated supply-constraint + RPO acceleration lifts both GOOGL and true suppliers. Falsifier: GOOGL rises on a capex CUT while demand decelerates.",
"H3 Capital-discipline regime: market now rewards FCF/margin, punishes capex; GOOGL reaction driven by Cloud margin not capex headline. Support: Feb -2% on the guide. Falsifier: capex raise \u2192 positive reaction with flat margin.",
"H4 Mix/insourcing: TPU insourcing decouples GOOGL capex from merchant-chip names; read-through is channel-specific. Falsifier: TPU share up yet merchant-chip names rally on GOOGL capex.",
"H5 Weak read-through/idiosyncratic: low GOOGL correlations + weak reaction predictiveness make cross-instrument inference noise; trade GOOGL only. Falsifier: July 23 semis move with GOOGL beyond 1\u03c3.",
"H6 Macro-rate dominance: July 22-23 tape is set by rates/soft-landing lifting banks/REITs; AI-capex is second-order for 132 of 142 names. Falsifier: AI-cluster dispersion dwarfs rate-cluster on those days.",
"H7 Depreciation-lag: margin drag is a 2027 story; near-term path decouples from capex, with fade risk if the market suddenly discounts drag.",
"H8 Power/energy channel: data-center power demand/PPAs are the durable under-priced channel; utilities express the thesis better than semis.",
"H9 Instrument-mismatch: cleanest expressions (NVDA/AVGO/VRT/ANET) are absent; this universe cannot cleanly monetize either binary leg.",
"H10 Reaction fade: per April precedent, GOOGL's reaction-day move mean-reverts within weeks and QQQ-relative underperformance persists.",
"H11 2x2 refinement: (capex hold/raise \u00d7 Cloud margin up/down) not a binary\u2014hold+margin-up bullish both; hold+margin-down bearish GOOGL, neutral suppliers.",
"H12 Guidance-revision surprise: the decision hinges on whether Alphabet raises/cuts/holds $175-185B and the supply-constraint language, more than on EPS."
],
"questions": [
"Did the mild-negative Feb reaction (-2.0%) to the $175-185B capex guide vs the April +10%\u2192-9.8% fade signal a regime shift from rewarding to punishing hyperscaler capex, and what drove each move?",
"Is AI capex zero-sum (FCF transfer to suppliers) or demand-validated (Cloud RPO/backlog growing faster than capex)? What backlog-to-capex coverage ratio flips the sign of the read-through?",
"What share of $175-185B is insourced TPU vs merchant GPU vs data-center construction vs power? Each maps to different, mostly-absent suppliers.",
"Do the universe's 'AI/semis' names (TXN, STM, NOK, MBLY, INFY) actually carry hyperscaler-capex exposure, or are they auto/industrial/IT-services proxies mis-tagged for this thesis?",
"Why is GOOGL's 63d correlation set (NVCR/QS/LAZ ~0.41) so weak and non-thematic\u2014does this make GOOGL un-hedgeable inside the universe and cross-reads unreliable?",
"Is the 75.4% 'positive since' plus 95-100% financials/REIT positivity a rate-cut/soft-landing tape effect that will dominate any AI-capex signal on July 22-23?",
"How much of GOOGL's next-quarter path is depreciation-timing (a 2027 margin drag) that the market may or may not discount now?",
"Does TXN printing the same July 22 AMC window confound the GOOGL AI read-through with an analog/industrial-demand signal?",
"What is GOOGL's market-implied expected move vs its own history (+10/-2) and the 6.7% cluster median\u2014is event convexity mispriced?",
"Are Cloud operating margin and capacity-utilization disclosures a better sign-predictor than the capex headline itself?",
"Given 54% sign-persistence and the April fade, is the reaction-day move a mean-reversion candidate, and what conditions favor fade vs follow-through?",
"Is the durable, under-priced channel actually power/utilities (PCG, CMS) via data-center PPAs rather than the mislabeled semis here?"
],
"specialist_tasks": [
"AI equity analyst: decompose capex into TPU/GPU/DC/power and deliver a named-supplier exposure matrix.",
"Cloud/software analyst: model Cloud RPO-to-capex coverage and margin trajectory; flag demand-validation vs capital-discipline.",
"Derivatives desk: source live GOOGL/TXN straddle-implied moves at cutoff vs reaction history; flag convexity mispricing (no invented quotes).",
"Quant: compute GOOGL idiosyncratic share vs QQQ and AI cluster, hedge-ratio stability, and correlation decay to test hedgeability.",
"Macro strategist: quantify the rate/soft-landing driver strength for July 22-23 and its dominance over the AI signal.",
"Event-study quant: build capex-raise vs -hold conditioned reaction/post-path distributions from external mega-cap prints.",
"Cross-asset/energy analyst: assess data-center power/PPA demand and PCG/CMS tradeability.",
"Semis analyst: classify TXN/STM/NOK/MBLY/INFY as AI-capex vs auto/industrial/IT-services to validate read-through tags.",
"Transcript/nowcast analyst: reconstruct the Feb -2.0% and April +10/-9.8% move drivers to date the regime shift.",
"Execution/liquidity: verify chain depth, spreads, and borrow before any sizing.",
"Risk manager: set fade-vs-hold rules and max sizing given weak sign-persistence and the April fade precedent.",
"PM/coordinator: sequence July 22 AMC (GOOGL/TXN) \u2192 July 23 BMO (semis) cadence and gate all trades on the decision tests."
]
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"actual_model": "anthropic/claude-fable-5",
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"disconfirming_evidence": [
"vs Decision test 1: thresholds 'capex >$185B AND Cloud \u226548%' are trivially satisfied by the standing $180\u2013190B guide and 63% Cloud print \u2014 as written the test fires spuriously; it must be re-based (e.g., raise above $190B; Cloud vs ~63%; backlog conversion vs schedule).",
"vs H1 (zero-sum binary): April 29 capex raise + GOOGL +10% reaction directly contradicts the 'maintain capex \u2192 hyperscaler down' leg; H1's own falsifier fired months ago.",
"vs H3 (capital-discipline, dated to 'Feb -2%'): the regime-dating evidence is measurement-fragile \u2014 press-reported Feb declines were ~5\u20137%, and the April rally on a RAISE with record 36.1% margin argues the market rewards capex-with-proof, not discipline per se.",
"vs H6 and the rate decision test: <cite index=\"21-8\">market pricing strongly favors zero rate cuts for the rest of the year</cite> and <cite index=\"23-9\">hold probability at the July FOMC sits above 85%</cite> \u2014 the 'cut-odds jump' branch is near-zero-probability; the missing branch (hot-CPI/hike repricing hitting the 41-name financials cluster) is the real risk.",
"vs H8 (PCG/CMS power expression): the bypass/behind-the-meter trend routes hyperscaler power spend around regulated utilities, and both names show negative QQQ-relative paths in the dossier \u2014 no evidence of a priced tailwind to fade or ride.",
"vs H9 (universe cannot monetize): TXN (data center +90% YoY) and STM (AI-server-driven rerating) provide partial, tradable exposure \u2014 though both enter with elevated bars, so the exposure is asymmetric to disappointment.",
"vs the fade rule ('reaction \u2265 +8% \u2192 fade'): n=1 (April), confounded by mark-to-market earnings quality and followed by a 38% rally off the March low; with 54.2% sign persistence, neither fade nor follow-through has a demonstrated base-rate edge.",
"vs the convexity precondition: <cite index=\"38-2,38-3\">the ~5.3% implied move is a touch above GOOGL's 4.8% average one-day earnings move over 12 quarters, well inside the +10.22%/-9.51% extremes</cite> \u2014 options are neither demonstrably cheap nor rich; the plan's own gate ('trade only if implied < evidence distribution') likely fails, implying no defined-risk GOOGL vol trade."
],
"findings": [
"[FACT] The plan's 'verified Alphabet baseline' is stale: on April 29 <cite index=\"5-1,5-2\">Alphabet raised full-year 2026 capex guidance to $180B\u2013$190B, up from $175B\u2013$185B, and Google Cloud revenue grew 63% YoY to $20B, more than doubling its growth rate</cite>; <cite index=\"17-18\">management also flagged a further 'significant increase' for 2027</cite>. All decision tests keyed to $175\u2013185B/48% must be re-based to $180\u2013190B/63%.",
"[FACT] Demand-validation metric exists and is checkable: <cite index=\"5-5,5-6\">cloud backlog is $462B, nearly doubled QoQ, with just over half expected to convert to revenue over the next 24 months</cite>. Q2 conversion pace replaces vague 'RPO acceleration' as the H2 trigger.",
"[FACT] April reaction quality was low: <cite index=\"17-15,17-16,17-17\">Q1 net income surged 81% to $62.6B with EPS $5.11, but $37.7B of other income including unrealised marks on Anthropic and SpaceX stakes drove nearly all of the beat; stripping it out, EPS would have missed consensus by a cent</cite>, and <cite index=\"17-12\">free cash flow fell 47% YoY in Q1</cite>. [INFERENCE] The dossier's +10.0% reaction then -9.8% post-path reads as an earnings-quality fade, not a capex-regime signal.",
"[FACT] Q2 headline-EPS distortion ahead: <cite index=\"38-10\">Alphabet's ~14% Anthropic stake has been marked up so sharply since March that at least one major bank expects reported EPS near $8, nearly triple the ~$2.87 Street model</cite>. [INFERENCE] Event-night rules must run on ex-mark operating EPS, Cloud growth, and capex \u2014 GAAP EPS screens will misfire.",
"[FACT] Sourced option pricing (no invented quotes): <cite index=\"37-3\">options price an average move of ~5.4% either way into July 22</cite>; <cite index=\"40-1,40-2\">implying roughly $329.75\u2013$367.45 on $348.60, slightly below the ~6% historical average</cite>; <cite index=\"37-11\">open interest skews toward calls</cite>. [CALC] 5.4% implied vs dossier GOOGL reactions (+10.0%, -2.0%) and AI-cluster median |reaction| 6.7%: long-vol edge is marginal \u2014 the plan's 'implied below evidence distribution' gate does not clearly pass.",
"[FACT] Macro regime is hawkish, not cut-friendly: <cite index=\"20-1,20-2\">futures show ~74.9% probability the Fed holds at 3.50%\u20133.75% and 25.1% odds of a quarter-point HIKE</cite>, with <cite index=\"20-9\">May CPI up 4.2% YoY</cite> and <cite index=\"23-8\">Goldman projecting first cuts in 2027</cite>; <cite index=\"24-6\">the FOMC meets July 28\u201329</cite>. [INFERENCE] The dossier's 95\u2013100% positive-since in financials/REITs occurred despite hawkish repricing \u2014 likely NIM/credit-driven, not cut-odds-driven.",
"[FACT] TXN (same-night AMC, confirmed) is not a pure industrial proxy: <cite index=\"27-3\">Q1 growth was led by industrial and data center</cite>, with <cite index=\"34-2,34-3\">data-center revenue up 90% YoY</cite>. [INFERENCE] TXN carries genuine partial hyperscaler-capex torque, but the bar is high: <cite index=\"30-8\">Q2 guidance was $5.00\u20135.40B revenue and EPS $1.77\u20132.05 with consensus near the upper end</cite> and <cite index=\"34-14\">shares are up ~69% YTD</cite>.",
"[FACT] STM confirmed July 23 BMO: <cite index=\"61-1\">results release before European market open on July 23</cite>; <cite index=\"62-4,62-6,62-7\">consensus EPS $0.26 vs $0.06 a year ago on revenue of $3.45B, +24.8% YoY</cite>, after <cite index=\"62-2\">a 31.6% earnings miss last quarter</cite>; <cite index=\"58-10\">stock +164% YTD on AI-server demand</cite>. [INFERENCE] Best next-morning read-through vehicle, but crowded and high-bar like TXN.",
"[FACT] Capex dollars \u2260 unit demand: <cite index=\"5-11,5-12\">Microsoft guided to ~$190B total 2026 investment, with about $25B attributed to higher component pricing</cite>. [INFERENCE] A meaningful slice of hyperscaler capex raises is price inflation, muting supplier-volume read-throughs from any GOOGL capex headline.",
"[FACT] Power channel has an in-universe expression the plan missed: <cite index=\"47-1\">TotalEnergies signed two 15-year PPAs with Google in February 2026 to supply 1 GW of new Texas solar</cite> \u2014 TTE prints July 23 BMO in this universe. Meanwhile <cite index=\"48-3,48-4\">operators are moving beyond PPAs to fund their own generation amid bring-your-own-power mandates</cite>, weakening regulated-utility (PCG/CMS) expressions. [CALC] Dossier: PCG/CMS QQQ-rel are -4.9%/-12.3% \u2014 no priced utility tailwind.",
"[FACT] Setup: <cite index=\"15-2\">GOOGL trades roughly 12% below its 52-week high despite a 14% YTD gain</cite>; <cite index=\"17-2\">Q1 operating margin was a record 36.1%</cite>; <cite index=\"15-3\">the Wiz acquisition and TPU rollout could pressure Cloud margins</cite>; consensus is <cite index=\"16-1\">$2.89 EPS on $116.84B revenue</cite>.",
"[CALC/INFERENCE] From the dossier: 132/142 names sit outside the AI cluster; reaction\u2192path sign persistence is 54.2% (\u2248coin flip); GOOGL's max in-universe 63d correlation is ~0.42 and non-thematic. Cross-instrument inference must run through named causal channels (TXN data-center line, STM AI-server line, TTE PPA counterparty), not correlations; hedging GOOGL inside this universe is infeasible \u2014 index hedge only."
],
"source_ledger": [
"abc.xyz Q4-2025 call (user-provided, Feb 4 2026): $175\u2013185B guide, Cloud 48%, 60/40 mix \u2014 AUTHENTIC but SUPERSEDED by the April 29 guide; do not use as the live baseline.",
"Fortune, 2026-04-29: capex raised to $180\u2013190B; Cloud +63% to $20B; backlog $462B, >50% converting in 24 months; MSFT $190B with ~$25B component pricing \u2014 high reliability, primary-adjacent.",
"CNBC, 2026-02-04: original $175\u2013185B guide; peer capex (Meta $115\u2013135B; <cite index=\"2-12\">Meta expects $115B\u2013$135B in 2026, nearly double last year's $72.2B at the high end</cite>) \u2014 high reliability.",
"IG research snapshot, 2026-07-16: implied ~5.3%; Q1 op margin 36.1%; FCF -47% YoY; $37.7B other-income marks; ex-marks EPS miss; 2027 'significant increase'; $272.11 March 30 low \u2014 broker research, high reliability.",
"Seeking Alpha / TradingView (GuruFocus), 2026-07-21: implied 5.4% on $348.60, range $329.75\u2013$367.45, call-skewed OI \u2014 timely, medium-high; treat as snapshot, not live quote.",
"indmoney preview, 2026-07-21: ~14% Anthropic stake; single-bank ~$8 reported-EPS scenario \u2014 medium reliability; single-source claim, confirm on the print.",
"Motley Fool/AOL Fed piece, early July 2026: 74.9% hold / 25.1% hike, CPI 4.2%, Chair Warsh's first meeting June 17 \u2014 medium-high; corroborated by Polymarket/Kalshi (hold >85%, ~20% any-2026-cut) and rateprobability.com (band 3.50\u20133.75% as of 07/19).",
"TI 8-K via SEC, 2026-04-22: Q1 revenue $4.83B, growth led by industrial and data center \u2014 primary filing, highest reliability.",
"Seeking Alpha TXN preview, 2026-07-21: consensus $1.95 on $5.24B; guided range $5.00\u20135.40B / $1.77\u20132.05 \u2014 high reliability; AOL/Yahoo TXN piece (data center +90%, +69% YTD) medium (promotional framing).",
"STMicroelectronics IR + StockTitan + Zacks, 2026-07-01/21: July 23 BMO confirmed; consensus $0.26/$3.45B; prior-quarter 31.6% miss; +164% YTD \u2014 primary date confirmation, high; Zacks estimates medium-high.",
"pv magazine USA, 2026-03-13: TTE\u2013Google 1 GW, 15-year Texas PPAs \u2014 trade press, high reliability; JLL 2026 outlook: bring-your-own-power/utility bypass trend \u2014 high.",
"mexc.com reposts (BitcoinEthereumNews), 2026-02-05: Feb -5% reaction, UBS $55B-above-expectation note, backlog $240B at Q4 \u2014 LOW-tier aggregator; used only where corroborated (theaiinnovator: -7.4% day / -5.2% AH); one Polymarket result contained an embedded bogus 'emergency rate cut' annotation \u2014 flagged and excluded as non-credible."
],
"surprises": [
"The director's own binary was already falsified in-sample: April 29 paired a capex RAISE with a +10% GOOGL reaction \u2014 the opposite of the binary's hyperscaler-down leg \u2014 while <cite index=\"5-10\">the CFO cited unprecedented internal and external demand for AI compute resources</cite>.",
"The 'verified baseline' section of the evidence dossier cites the February guide that was superseded three months before the decision date \u2014 every threshold in decision test 1 is calibrated to a dead number.",
"The Anthropic mark-to-market could roughly triple reported EPS, an event-night algo-whipsaw channel absent from all 12 hypotheses and capable of generating a large headline move with zero operating information.",
"Macro gate points the wrong way: the plan's trigger is 'if cut-odds jump'; markets price zero cuts and ~25% HIKE odds into a July 28\u201329 FOMC six days after the print \u2014 the live tail is hawkish repricing, not easing.",
"TTE \u2014 already on the July 23 BMO list \u2014 is a direct Google power counterparty via 1 GW of 15-year PPAs; the plan proposed PCG/CMS and overlooked its own in-universe power expression.",
"Reaction-magnitude discrepancy: the dossier logs the Feb 4 GOOGL reaction at -2.0%, but contemporaneous reports show <cite index=\"8-4,8-5\">shares dropped 5% after the beat on the capex forecast</cite> and <cite index=\"6-5\">a 7.4% fall with a further 5.2% after-hours slide</cite> \u2014 the dossier's measurement window may understate event moves across all 142 rows.",
"Path-shape blindspot: <cite index=\"17-5\">GOOGL gained 38% from its March 30 bottom of $272.11, outperforming the Nasdaq 100</cite> \u2014 the dossier's -9.8% post / -16.0% QQQ-relative row masks a V-shaped recovery; 'QQQ-relative underperformance persists' (H10) is entry-point dependent, not monotone.",
"UBS framing inverts the supply-constraint trade: <cite index=\"8-10,8-11\">tight compute supply might limit near-term growth even with the spend, and the guide was $55B above expectation while lifting 2027 EPS by only 1%</cite> \u2014 'supply constrained' reaffirmation is not unambiguously bullish.",
"TXN's data-center segment (+90% YoY) means the plan's 'TXN as pure industrial confounder' decision test could throw away a genuine same-night AI-capex confirmation signal.",
"[SPECULATION] With <cite index=\"18-2,18-3\">Alphabet kicking off Mag-7 earnings and potentially setting the tone before Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia report</cite>, the July 22 print's largest P&L consequence may be in instruments outside this 142-name universe."
],
"unresolved": [
"Whether July 22 holds $180\u2013190B, nudges it, or quantifies the flagged 2027 'significant increase' \u2014 no sourced probability exists; this remains the single largest branch point.",
"Cloud operating margin trajectory and TPU-insource vs merchant-silicon mix are not disclosed at the granularity H4/H11 require; Wiz-related margin drag timing unknown.",
"Backlog conversion: whether Q2 Cloud revenue confirms the >50%-of-$462B-in-24-months schedule \u2014 first observable print of the thesis's key ratio.",
"Reconciliation of dossier reaction-close windows against press-reported moves (Feb: -2.0% vs ~5\u20137%) \u2014 must be resolved before any rule calibrated to dossier reaction magnitudes is trusted.",
"Live event-day ATM straddle at the July 22 close (sourced figures are July 16\u201321 snapshots of 5.2\u20135.4%); IV-crush economics and spread/depth unverified \u2014 per the mandate, no exact trade should be published on these numbers.",
"Preview-flagged noise factors \u2014 <cite index=\"38-6\">talent exits, a chip delay, the Anthropic windfall</cite> \u2014 materiality and dating unverified.",
"GOOGL hedge ratio and idiosyncratic share vs QQQ unestimated; in-universe hedging confirmed infeasible (max corr ~0.42) but the index-hedge beta is not pinned down.",
"NOK, INFY, MBLY July 23 BMO timings not individually verified in this pass (STM and TXN confirmed).",
"DOJ search-case appeal timing remains an unquantified overhang cited by forecasters since February.",
"Whether the financials cluster's 95.1% positive-since survives the July 28\u201329 FOMC / next CPI window \u2014 the dominant risk to 41 of the 142 names is six days after these prints, outside the event study's conditioning.",
"Whether the same-night TXN print contaminates or confirms the GOOGL read: if TXN's data-center line accelerates while GOOGL disappoints (or vice versa), the divergence itself is the most informative single observation of the night \u2014 no prior distribution for it exists.",
"Sector-wide capex context for July 23 read-throughs: Meta's $115\u2013135B and Microsoft's $190B plans imply supplier demand is multi-sourced; how much any single Google datapoint can move suppliers is unmeasured."
]
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"calculations": [
{
"implication": "A new capex raise means above $190B, not above $185B; $180B-$190B is a hold.",
"item": "Alphabet baseline reset",
"math": "Prior midpoint $180B; live 2026 capex midpoint $185B. Increase = $5B, or 2.8%. Cloud-growth baseline rose from 48% to 63%, +15 percentage points or +31.3%."
},
{
"caveat": "$231B/$185B = 1.25x, but this compares 24-month revenue with one-year capex and is not a margin, cash-flow, or valuation threshold.",
"item": "Backlog conversion",
"math": "$462B backlog with more than half expected within 24 months implies more than $231B, mechanically above $28.9B per quarter versus Q1 Cloud revenue of $20B."
},
{
"implication": "Cluster post-return medians are not standardized-horizon forecasts.",
"item": "Unequal post-event horizons",
"math": "Latest-event paths span about 67 to 131 calendar days; GOOGL's April 29-to-July 21 path spans 83 days."
},
{
"implication": "Both prior reaction signs reversed by the cutoff, although n=2 and the February reaction window is disputed.",
"item": "GOOGL reaction reversals",
"math": "April: 1.10 x 0.902 - 1 = -0.78% total; supplied QQQ-relative return of -16.0% implies QQQ gained 6.2% over the post period. February: -2.0% reaction and +2.2% total imply +4.29% afterward."
},
{
"implication": "Reaction direction is near a coin flip for subsequent direction; positive market drift dominated the post paths.",
"item": "Aggregate directional priors",
"math": "Approximately 74/142 latest reactions were positive, 107/142 post paths were positive, and only 77/142 reaction/path signs matched."
},
{
"implication": "AI names carry larger event risk but no demonstrated follow-through advantage.",
"item": "AI-cluster event scale",
"math": "AI-cluster median absolute reaction was 6.7% versus 3.3% overall, a 2.03x ratio; its median post return was only +2.1% and 6/10 paths were positive."
},
{
"implication": "The volatility edge changes sign with the comparison set and is too small to survive unknown spreads, skew, IV crush, and execution costs. The range is not an option break-even quote.",
"item": "GOOGL option snapshot economics",
"math": "At the supplied $348.60 and 5.4% expected-move snapshot, the indicative range is $329.78-$367.42. The 5.4% move is 10% below GOOGL's two-event mean absolute move of 6.0%, 19% below the AI-cluster median of 6.7%, but 12.5% above the supplied 12-quarter one-day average of 4.8%."
},
{
"implication": "No universe name is a valid GOOGL hedge; correlation alone also does not determine a QQQ hedge ratio.",
"item": "Correlation and hedge quality",
"math": "GOOGL's highest supplied 63-day correlation is about 0.42, implying at most 17.6% bivariate variance association. Stable within-cluster pairs include NSC/UNP at 0.96 and AVB/EQR at 0.95."
},
{
"implication": "Most July 22-23 returns should be attributed to issuer fundamentals and macro factors, not Google capex.",
"item": "Breadth outside AI",
"math": "132/142 companies, or 93.0%, are outside the AI cluster. Financials had about 39/41 positive post paths, real estate 10/10, and healthcare 6/6."
},
{
"implication": "A capex raise can represent inflation rather than incremental compute units, weakening automatic supplier-volume conclusions.",
"item": "Capex dollars versus units",
"math": "Microsoft attributed about $25B of $190B investment to component pricing, or 13.2%."
},
{
"implication": "Both have genuine AI/data-center exposure but elevated expectations and potentially adverse chase asymmetry.",
"item": "TXN and STM hurdles",
"math": "TXN consensus revenue of $5.24B is 60% through its $5.00B-$5.40B range; EPS of $1.95 is 64% through $1.77-$2.05. TXN was up about 69% YTD. STM was up about 164% YTD, with $0.26 EPS consensus versus $0.06 a year earlier."
},
{
"implication": "The existing Google-TTE PPA has not produced a clean power-factor signal, while regulated utilities face bypass risk.",
"item": "Power-channel tape",
"math": "TTE post/QQQ-relative returns were -9.4%/-16.6%; PCG +3.9%/-4.9%; CMS -4.5%/-12.3%."
}
],
"counterfactuals": [
{
"conclusion": "The claim that maintained or higher capex must hurt the hyperscaler was already falsified.",
"evidence": "Alphabet raised capex to $180B-$190B in April and GOOGL reacted +10.0%.",
"test": "Zero-sum capex thesis"
},
{
"conclusion": "Neither chasing nor fading the first move has a demonstrated base-rate edge.",
"evidence": "April's +10.0% became -0.78% by July 21; February's -2.0% became +2.2% total.",
"test": "Reaction-follow-through thesis"
},
{
"conclusion": "GAAP EPS can generate a large false signal unrelated to operations or capex.",
"evidence": "Q1 net income rose 81%, but $37.7B of other income drove nearly all the beat; ex-marks EPS would have missed by about one cent and free cash flow fell 47%.",
"test": "Headline-EPS quality"
},
{
"conclusion": "Demand quality dominates the transfer-of-cash framing.",
"counterfactual": "If spending rises while Cloud demand and conversion weaken, GOOGL and suppliers can both fall.",
"test": "Capex raise means suppliers up"
},
{
"conclusion": "A cut is not a complete causal state.",
"counterfactual": "If a cut accompanies strong margins and utilization, GOOGL can rise; supplier effects depend on mix, inventory, and other hyperscalers.",
"test": "Capex cut means GOOGL up and suppliers down"
},
{
"conclusion": "Nominal spending can rise without proportional supplier volumes.",
"evidence": "About 13.2% of Microsoft's cited investment was attributed to higher component pricing.",
"test": "Capex dollars equal compute units"
},
{
"conclusion": "Even correlated semiconductors produce very different earnings alpha.",
"evidence": "TXN and STM have 0.77 correlation, yet their latest post paths were +3.2% and +31.6%, with QQQ-relative returns of -5.6% and +22.8%.",
"test": "Homogeneous supplier read-through"
},
{
"conclusion": "Backlog, utilization, and margin effects must be separated.",
"evidence": "Tight compute supply can validate demand but also cap near-term Cloud growth and require low-return spending.",
"test": "Supply constraint is unambiguously bullish"
},
{
"conclusion": "A named, material contract is required.",
"evidence": "PCG, CMS, and TTE all underperformed QQQ over their supplied post periods, while bring-your-own-power can bypass regulated utilities.",
"test": "Utilities are the clean power proxy"
},
{
"conclusion": "NIM, credit, issuer earnings, or general risk appetite are more plausible than a simple cut-odds explanation.",
"evidence": "Those clusters were overwhelmingly positive despite supplied markets pricing no cuts and some hike risk.",
"test": "Financial and REIT paths imply easing"
},
{
"conclusion": "Post-release moves cannot be attributed to Google without a clean pre-announcement window and segment confirmation.",
"evidence": "The relevant semiconductor and services names also release their own results BMO.",
"test": "July 23 moves identify Google causality"
},
{
"conclusion": "Pairing GOOGL with a universe name creates uncontrolled residual risk.",
"evidence": "GOOGL's highest supplied 63-day correlation is only about 0.42 and is non-thematic.",
"test": "Correlation supplies a GOOGL hedge"
}
],
"missing_data": [
{
"item": "Final 2026 capex guidance and quantified 2027 trajectory",
"why": "Defines hold, raise, cut, and depreciation branches."
},
{
"item": "Q2 Cloud growth, Cloud margin, backlog, bookings, and updated 24-month conversion schedule",
"why": "Required to distinguish demand validation from overbuild."
},
{
"item": "Ex-mark EPS, operating-income, and cash-flow bridge",
"why": "Needed to remove Anthropic and other valuation noise."
},
{
"item": "TPU versus merchant GPU, server versus construction, unit versus price, and power mix",
"why": "Determines which suppliers, if any, receive the spending."
},
{
"item": "Live July 22 close option chain",
"why": "ATM straddle price, expiry, skew, bid/ask, depth, and IV-crush economics are needed before any option expression."
},
{
"item": "GOOGL beta and hedge-ratio stability versus QQQ",
"why": "No defensible market-neutral sizing is currently available."
},
{
"item": "Reaction-window reconciliation",
"why": "The table's February -2.0% conflicts with press-reported declines around 5%-7%, undermining fixed move thresholds."
},
{
"item": "Exact overnight release timestamps for TXN, STM, NOK, INFY, and MBLY",
"why": "Necessary to isolate any pre-own-earnings Google read-through."
},
{
"item": "Issuer-level hyperscaler exposure and new forward guidance",
"why": "Required before treating TXN, STM, NOK, MBLY, or INFY as a coherent basket."
},
{
"item": "Consistent event-day rates snapshot",
"why": "Supplied hold probabilities differ across sources; rate moves can dominate banks, REITs, and QQQ."
},
{
"item": "Borrow, financing, margin, and collateral terms",
"why": "Negative-delta equity or short-vol economics cannot be assessed without them."
},
{
"item": "PPA economics and earnings materiality",
"why": "The 1 GW TTE contract alone does not establish stock-level sensitivity."
}
],
"preferred_expression": [
{
"expression": "No position and no event-volatility trade.",
"reason": "Implied-move comparisons conflict, live execution economics are absent, and scenario probabilities are unsupported.",
"timing": "Before July 22 AMC"
},
{
"expression": "Conditional GOOGL cash-equity delta: positive on demand validation or disciplined growth; negative only on overbuild with weak demand and margins.",
"hedge": "Use QQQ only after measuring beta; otherwise make no market-neutral claim.",
"timing": "After the Alphabet call"
},
{
"expression": "Use TXN and then STM only as self-confirmed channel trades; do not use a supplier basket, a GOOGL/TXN pair, or regulated utilities by default.",
"timing": "Same night and July 23 BMO"
},
{
"expression": "Do not mechanically chase or fade the reaction size. Review within five sessions and extend only if Cloud growth, backlog conversion, margins, and issuer-specific guidance confirm the direction.",
"timing": "Post-release management"
}
],
"scenarios": [
{
"action": "Do not assign unsupported numerical branch weights or claim positive expected value before the operating state is observed.",
"probability": "Not calibratable from the supplied evidence. Empirical positive-reaction priors are 1/2 for GOOGL, 6/10 for latest AI names, and about 74/142 overall, none conditioned on the revised baseline.",
"state": "Probability and expected-value gate"
},
{
"action": "Favor GOOGL after the call. Require TXN and STM to confirm through their own data-center or AI-server results.",
"invalidation": "Cloud deceleration, weaker conversion, or margin compression not explained by timing.",
"read_through": "GOOGL and genuinely exposed suppliers can rise together; this rejects the zero-sum binary.",
"state": "Demand-validated spending",
"trigger": "Capex holds at $180B-$190B or rises above $190B; Cloud growth remains near or above 63%; the more-than-half-of-backlog/24-month schedule is reaffirmed; Cloud and consolidated margins are stable."
},
{
"action": "Favor GOOGL, but avoid supplier longs until issuer-specific confirmation.",
"invalidation": "The cut reflects demand weakness or backlog deterioration.",
"read_through": "Bullish GOOGL; supplier impact is mixed rather than mechanically bearish because demand may be met through utilization, mix, or insourcing.",
"state": "Capital discipline with resilient demand",
"trigger": "Capex is held toward the low end or cut below $180B while Cloud, backlog conversion, margins, and free cash flow remain resilient."
},
{
"action": "Consider negative GOOGL delta or relative underweight only after the operating bridge is clear.",
"invalidation": "Demand and margins validate the extra spending.",
"read_through": "Bearish GOOGL and not necessarily bullish suppliers; weak demand or component inflation can pressure both sides.",
"state": "Overbuild or inflationary capex",
"trigger": "Capex rises above $190B or 2027 spending accelerates while Cloud growth, backlog conversion, margins, or free cash flow weaken."
},
{
"action": "Wait for merchant-silicon, TPU, utilization, and timing detail rather than trade the capex headline.",
"invalidation": "Cloud growth and margins remain strong despite the bottleneck.",
"read_through": "Long-term supplier demand may be intact while near-term GOOGL economics deteriorate.",
"state": "Capacity bottleneck",
"trigger": "Supply constraints and backlog strengthen, but near-term Cloud growth slows and depreciation or operating costs rise."
},
{
"action": "Ignore headline EPS and wait for the ex-mark bridge, Cloud metrics, and guidance.",
"invalidation": "Operating revenue, margins, and cash flow independently exceed expectations.",
"read_through": "The first move is a false-positive risk with little supplier information.",
"state": "Accounting-driven headline",
"trigger": "Reported EPS surges primarily because of Anthropic or other unrealized marks while ex-mark operating EPS and cash flow do not improve."
},
{
"action": "Trade only the issuer with confirmed fundamentals; do not force a GOOGL/supplier pair.",
"read_through": "The first case supports insourcing or issuer-specific weakness; the second supports multi-sourced hyperscaler demand.",
"state": "Issuer divergence",
"trigger": "GOOGL validates demand but TXN data-center or STM AI-server results weaken, or GOOGL disappoints while those lines remain strong."
},
{
"action": "Defer to rates and issuer earnings; use no AI basket extrapolation.",
"read_through": "Google has little causal value for 132 non-AI names; prior financial/REIT strength should not be labeled a rate-cut trade.",
"state": "Macro override",
"trigger": "Hike probabilities or yields rise materially around the releases and broad financial, REIT, or QQQ factors dominate."
},
{
"action": "Evaluate TTE or another named counterparty only after materiality is established; avoid PCG/CMS as default proxies.",
"read_through": "Value may accrue to a named counterparty rather than regulated utilities or semiconductors.",
"state": "Power-routing change",
"trigger": "Google announces a material new PPA, self-generation investment, or bring-your-own-power arrangement with disclosed economics."
}
],
"trade_candidates": [
{
"expression": "Remain flat before July 22 AMC.",
"invalidation": "A verified close-of-day chain shows a materially different expected move with executable liquidity and a defined causal thesis.",
"rank": 1,
"rationale": "The 5.3%-5.4% option snapshot is neither clearly cheap nor rich, scenario probabilities are uncalibrated, and live spreads and collateral economics are unavailable."
},
{
"expression": "Post-call long GOOGL delta, preferably cash equity rather than unsupported event options.",
"hedge": "QQQ only after estimating beta; no in-universe hedge.",
"invalidation": "Cloud, margin, or conversion deterioration. Review within five sessions unless fundamentals confirm persistence.",
"rank": 2,
"trigger": "Demand-validation state: resilient Cloud growth, backlog conversion on schedule, stable margins, and capex supported by unit demand."
},
{
"asymmetry": "This can work even if suppliers lag, directly opposing the proposed binary.",
"expression": "Post-call long GOOGL on capital discipline.",
"invalidation": "Spending restraint is demand-driven rather than efficiency-driven.",
"rank": 3,
"trigger": "Capex holds or falls while demand, margins, and free cash flow improve."
},
{
"execution_gate": "Verify borrow, financing, and market hedge before any short expression.",
"expression": "Post-call GOOGL underweight or negative delta.",
"invalidation": "Demand and margin evidence validates the spending.",
"rank": 4,
"trigger": "Capex exceeds $190B while Cloud growth, backlog conversion, margin, and cash flow weaken."
},
{
"asymmetry": "A 69% YTD gain and consensus in the upper half of guidance argue against chasing a merely in-line print.",
"expression": "TXN confirmation trade only after its own report.",
"invalidation": "Data-center deceleration or weak forward guidance, regardless of GOOGL's move.",
"rank": 5,
"trigger": "Data-center growth remains strong relative to Q1's +90%, results clear consensus, and forward guidance confirms demand."
},
{
"asymmetry": "The 164% YTD gain and prior 31.6% earnings miss make disappointment the cleaner risk channel; no GOOGL-only entry.",
"expression": "STM trade only after the July 23 BMO release.",
"invalidation": "Weak AI-server mix, margins, or guide.",
"rank": 6,
"trigger": "AI-server demand and forward guidance exceed its own high expectations."
},
{
"expression": "TTE power-channel watch, not a standing trade.",
"invalidation": "Only the existing 1 GW PPA is reiterated, or broader energy drivers dominate.",
"rank": 7,
"trigger": "A new Google contract or disclosed earnings contribution is material to TTE."
},
{
"expression": "No broad July 23 supplier basket.",
"invalidation": "Multiple issuers independently confirm the same demand, mix, and guidance signal.",
"rank": 8,
"rationale": "TXN, STM, NOK, INFY, and MBLY have their own earnings, mixed business exposures, and elevated issuer-specific bars."
},
{
"expression": "Stable-pair relative-value watch only.",
"invalidation": "Fundamental guidance explains the divergence or hedge ratios are unstable.",
"rank": 9,
"rationale": "These correlations are useful controls for common factors, not Google read-throughs.",
"trigger": "NSC/UNP, AVB/EQR, or a stable bank pair shows an unexplained post-earnings residual divergence."
}
]
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"conclusion": "The pre-event edge asserted by the user does not exist. The proposed capex binary was already falsified in-sample (April 29: capex RAISE to $180-190B plus Cloud +63% coincided with GOOGL +10%), and the dossier's 'verified baseline' ($175-185B/48%) is a superseded February number, so every threshold keyed to it fires spuriously. Reaction-to-path sign persistence is 54.2% (coin flip); GOOGL's two prior reactions both reversed sign. Sourced option snapshots (~5.3-5.4% implied) sit above the 4.8% 12-quarter average but below the 6.0-6.7% comparison sets, so vol is neither clearly cheap nor rich and no defined-risk event trade clears the plan's own gate. GOOGL is un-hedgeable in-universe (max corr ~0.42), and 132/142 names are macro/issuer-driven, not Google read-throughs. The correct decision now is to stay flat and hold fire for the operating print, with conditional post-release rules pre-specified.",
"confidence": "High (0.75) on NO TRADE pre-event; Low on any directional post-event bias until the operating state prints.",
"exact_action": "NO TRADE into July 22 AMC and July 23 BMO. Carry no pre-event GOOGL delta and no event-vol position. Arm conditional cash-equity rules to execute only after the call: long GOOGL if capex holds/raises with Cloud near/above 63%, backlog conversion on schedule, and ex-mark margins stable; negative delta only if capex >$190B alongside decelerating Cloud/margin/FCF (borrow verified first). Hedge with QQQ beta only. Treat TXN and STM as self-confirmed channel trades post-own-report, never as a GOOGL pair.",
"falsifiers": [
"A verified close-of-day July 22 chain shows implied move materially below the (re-based) reaction distribution with executable spreads/depth and a named causal channel \u2014 would justify a defined-risk long-vol trade.",
"Capex held/raised with Cloud near/above 63%, on-schedule backlog conversion, and stable ex-mark margins \u2014 validates post-call long GOOGL delta.",
"Capex >$190B with decelerating Cloud, weakening conversion, or margin/FCF compression not explained by timing \u2014 validates negative GOOGL delta (borrow permitting).",
"TXN data-center line accelerates past +90% YoY with strong guide while GOOGL disappoints (or the inverse) \u2014 the divergence itself becomes the actionable, most-informative observation.",
"Hot CPI or hawkish repricing into the window makes rates dominate and swamps any AI signal \u2014 deprioritize the entire AI thesis and defer to the financials/REIT rate exposure."
],
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"Re-base all decision tests to the live guide: capex 'raise' = >$190B; 'hold' = $180-190B; Cloud vs ~63%; add backlog-conversion-vs-schedule as the H2 trigger.",
"On the print, run rules on ex-mark operating EPS, Cloud growth/margin, backlog, and capex \u2014 explicitly ignore GAAP EPS distorted by Anthropic/SpaceX marks.",
"Pull the July 22 close option chain (ATM straddle, skew, OI, depth, borrow) before any option or short expression; publish no trade on stale snapshots.",
"Estimate GOOGL/QQQ beta and hedge-ratio stability over 21/63d before sizing any market-neutral claim.",
"Sequence read-throughs: GOOGL/TXN July 22 AMC, then STM July 23 BMO; log the GOOGL-vs-TXN divergence as the night's highest-information observation.",
"Gate TXN and STM to self-confirmed channel trades only (data-center growth vs +90%; AI-server mix/guide vs elevated bars); no supplier basket, no GOOGL pair.",
"Reconcile dossier reaction magnitudes against contemporaneous reports for at least GOOGL before trusting any magnitude-based fade/chase rule.",
"Refresh the rates snapshot (hold/hike odds, front-end curve) day-of; if hawkish repricing dominates, deprioritize AI and manage the 41-name financials exposure.",
"Treat TTE as a power-channel watch (existing 1 GW PPA), not a standing trade; require a new contract or disclosed earnings contribution to act; avoid PCG/CMS as default proxies.",
"Post-entry, review within five sessions; extend hold only if Cloud growth, backlog conversion, margins, and issuer guidance confirm direction (54% persistence gives no default edge)."
],
"strongest_bear_case": [
"Anthropic mark-to-market could roughly triple reported EPS (~$8 vs ~$2.87 model), a large headline-driven whipsaw with zero operating content.",
"Q1 beat was ~all non-operating: $37.7B other income drove it, ex-marks EPS would have missed by a cent, and FCF fell 47% YoY.",
"Overbuild risk: ~13% of peer (MSFT) capex is component-price inflation, so a raise can signal cost, not units, and pressure both GOOGL and suppliers.",
"Macro tail points the wrong way: ~75% hold / ~25% HIKE, zero cuts priced, FOMC July 28-29 (six days later) threatens the 41-name financials cluster the plan assumed was a cut trade.",
"TXN (+69% YTD, consensus in upper half of guide) and STM (+164% YTD, prior 31.6% miss) enter with elevated bars\u2014disappointment is the cleaner risk channel.",
"Supply-constraint reaffirmation is ambiguous: tight compute can cap near-term Cloud growth even as spend rises (UBS: $55B above expectation lifted 2027 EPS only ~1%)."
],
"strongest_bull_case": [
"Demand-validation regime is live, not hypothetical: $180-190B capex with Cloud +63% to $20B, backlog $462B nearly doubled QoQ, record 36.1% operating margin, supply-constrained language.",
"April +10% reaction to a capex RAISE shows this tape rewards 'capex-with-proof,' directly refuting the zero-sum leg.",
"GOOGL trades ~12% below its 52-week high despite the fundamentals, leaving room if Q2 confirms.",
"Backlog math: >50% of $462B over 24 months implies >$28.9B/quarter vs $20B Q1 Cloud, a mechanically strong forward cover.",
"Post-call long GOOGL cash delta is a clean, executable expression if Cloud/backlog/margin confirm, with QQQ as the only sane hedge."
],
"unresolved": [
"Whether July 22 holds $180-190B, pushes above $190B, or quantifies the flagged 2027 'significant increase' \u2014 no sourced probability exists.",
"Q2 Cloud operating margin, TPU-vs-merchant-silicon mix, and Wiz-related margin-drag timing (needed for H4/H11).",
"Whether Q2 Cloud revenue confirms the >50%-of-$462B/24-month conversion schedule \u2014 first observable print of the key ratio.",
"Reconciliation of dossier reaction windows (Feb -2.0% vs press-reported ~5-7%) before any rule keyed to dossier magnitudes is trusted.",
"Live event-day ATM straddle at July 22 close, IV-crush economics, spread/depth \u2014 snapshots are July 16-21 only.",
"GOOGL beta/idiosyncratic share vs QQQ \u2014 in-universe hedge confirmed infeasible, but the index hedge ratio is unpinned.",
"Exact overnight timestamps for TXN, STM, NOK, INFY, MBLY to isolate any pre-own-earnings Google read-through.",
"Whether financials' 95.1% positive-since survives the July 28-29 FOMC / next CPI \u2014 dominant risk to 41 names sits outside the event-study conditioning.",
"Borrow, financing, and collateral terms for any negative-delta or short-vol expression.",
"Materiality of preview-flagged noise (talent exits, chip delay, DOJ appeal timing)."
],
"why_now": [
"Two dated catalysts (July 22 AMC GOOGL/TXN, July 23 BMO STM et al.) resolve the single largest branch point\u20142026 capex vs $190B, Cloud pace, and backlog conversion\u2014so waiting is edge-preserving, not edge-forfeiting.",
"Nothing is currently mispriced enough to justify pre-positioning: option vol is fairly valued and scenario probabilities are uncalibratable from the record.",
"The informational value is concentrated in the print itself and in the same-night GOOGL/TXN divergence, which cannot be front-run without a live chain and clean pre-own-earnings windows."
]
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"blocking_gaps": [
"Primary Alphabet Q1 filing/call confirming the revised capex guide, Cloud growth, backlog, margins, and 2027 language.",
"Underlying adjusted-price data and complete methodology for all 142 event reactions, paths, relative returns, and correlations.",
"Standardized non-overlapping post-event horizons for both prior events.",
"Reconciliation of GOOGL's February -2.0% table reaction with contemporaneous -5% to -7% reports.",
"Primary IR confirmation of the July 22-23 dates, sessions, and exact timestamps for relevant issuers.",
"July 22 close option chain with expiry, straddle premium, bid/ask, skew, depth, and IV-crush assumptions.",
"Current operating consensus, valuation, and post-gap entry thresholds needed to assess post-release trade economics.",
"GOOGL/QQQ beta stability, liquidity, borrow, financing, sizing, and risk limits.",
"Issuer-level Alphabet/hyperscaler exposure for TXN, STM, NOK, INFY, and MBLY.",
"A consistent timestamped rates snapshot resolving the conflicting hold/hike probabilities.",
"Auditable ex-mark EPS, tax, share-count, operating-income, and cash-flow bridge.",
"Evidence supporting any five-day holding rule or correlation-based relative-value payoff."
],
"checks_passed": [
"Cluster counts sum to 142; 10 AI names leave 132/142, or 93.0%, outside AI.",
"Aggregate percentages imply about 74 positive reactions, 107 positive post paths, and 77 same-sign paths.",
"AI median absolute reaction 6.7% versus 3.3% overall is 2.03x; 60.0% equals 6/10.",
"GOOGL April compounding is correct: 1.10 x 0.902 - 1 = -0.78%; -16.0% relative implies QQQ +6.2%.",
"The latest-event horizons span roughly 67-131 calendar days; GOOGL April 29-July 21 is 83 days.",
"Conditional on the revised guide being authentic, midpoint capex rose $180B to $185B, or 2.8%; Cloud growth rose 15 points from 48% to 63%.",
"More than half of $462B is more than $231B, averaging more than $28.9B over eight quarters; the record correctly notes the period mismatch.",
"At $348.60, a 5.4% move gives approximately $329.78-$367.42; comparisons with 6.0%, 6.7%, and 4.8% are arithmetically correct.",
"$25B/$190B equals 13.2%, though Microsoft pricing inflation cannot be imputed to Alphabet.",
"No exact option contract, premium, break-even, position size, or payoff is published."
],
"corrected_claims": [
"Treat $180B-$190B and 63% as provisional live baselines pending primary confirmation; if confirmed, above $190B is a raise and below $180B is a cut.",
"Cloud growth moving from 48% to 63% is +15 percentage points, or +31.3% relatively, not a doubling.",
"The record demonstrates no reliable pre-event directional or volatility edge; it cannot prove that none exists.",
"April is a counterexample to a deterministic 'higher capex always hurts GOOGL' rule, not proof that capex caused the positive reaction.",
"Option value is indeterminate, not demonstrably cheap, rich, or fair.",
"Any pre-event flat recommendation should be limited to GOOGL and Google-linked capex expressions, not all 142 earnings releases.",
"Cloud, backlog, margin, and capex states are monitoring conditions, not executable long/short rules until market expectations and post-release price are incorporated.",
"Five sessions may be a discretionary risk-review interval but is not evidence-derived.",
"The supplied correlations establish no validated in-universe GOOGL hedge; QQQ hedge effectiveness also remains unmeasured.",
"The backlog figures indicate contracted demand but do not create a comparable backlog-to-capex coverage ratio or a stock-return trigger.",
"TXN and STM should be evaluated on their own results; their divergence from GOOGL cannot be labeled confirmation without customer exposure and clean timing.",
"Use qualitative macro uncertainty unless a single timestamped, authoritative rate-probability source is supplied."
],
"issues": [
"The live $180B-$190B capex and 63% Cloud baselines rely on unattached citation-index summaries and conflict with the section labeled 'Verified Alphabet baseline.' Primary Alphabet evidence is required. Also, 63% is only 31.3% above 48%, not more than double it.",
"The 142-name study is not reproducible: adjusted-price sources, dividend/corporate-action treatment, AMC/BMO window rules, and QQQ calculations are absent. Prior-event paths also overlap later earnings events, while aggregate statistics appear to use only latest events.",
"GOOGL's February reaction is reported as -2.0% in the table but roughly -5% to -7% elsewhere. This blocks all reaction-threshold, fade, and implied-move comparisons.",
"Calling 5.3%-5.4% volatility 'fairly valued' or saying nothing is mispriced does not follow. Expiry, premium, skew, spreads, IV crush, and live close data are missing, and comparison sets disagree.",
"'The pre-event edge does not exist' is too strong; the evidence establishes only that no edge has been demonstrated.",
"One April observation is inconsistent with a deterministic zero-sum rule but does not causally falsify a probabilistic capex thesis; Cloud growth, margins, accounting marks, and market factors confound it.",
"The post-call long/negative-delta instructions lack surprise-versus-consensus thresholds, post-gap entry prices, valuation, sizing, stop, and expected payoff. The blanket 'NO TRADE into July 22/23' also cannot cover all 142 issuer-specific releases.",
"The five-session review/holding rule is unsupported: supplied post paths span 67-131 days and contain no five-day event study.",
"The 0.75 confidence is uncalibrated. The exact 74.9% hold/25.1% hike probabilities are timestamp-sensitive and conflict with another cited hold estimate above 85%.",
"A maximum correlation near 0.42 does not prove in-universe hedging is infeasible, and r-squared is not hedge effectiveness. Pair trades also require betas, spread stationarity, residual thresholds, and costs.",
"The ~$8 EPS scenario and exact one-cent ex-mark miss rely on secondary or single-source estimates without a tax, share-count, or mark-to-market bridge; they must remain scenarios, not facts.",
"TXN data-center growth and STM AI-server exposure do not establish Alphabet sensitivity. Likewise, backlog/capex 'coverage' mixes two-year Cloud revenue with one-year consolidated capex and supports no valuation or payoff threshold."
],
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"started_at_utc": "2026-07-22T05:15:54.264771+00:00",
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"subject": "Earnings event history and Google AI capex read-through",
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"adjudication": {
"conclusion": "The pre-event edge asserted by the user does not exist. The proposed capex binary was already falsified in-sample (April 29: capex RAISE to $180-190B plus Cloud +63% coincided with GOOGL +10%), and the dossier's 'verified baseline' ($175-185B/48%) is a superseded February number, so every threshold keyed to it fires spuriously. Reaction-to-path sign persistence is 54.2% (coin flip); GOOGL's two prior reactions both reversed sign. Sourced option snapshots (~5.3-5.4% implied) sit above the 4.8% 12-quarter average but below the 6.0-6.7% comparison sets, so vol is neither clearly cheap nor rich and no defined-risk event trade clears the plan's own gate. GOOGL is un-hedgeable in-universe (max corr ~0.42), and 132/142 names are macro/issuer-driven, not Google read-throughs. The correct decision now is to stay flat and hold fire for the operating print, with conditional post-release rules pre-specified.",
"confidence": "High (0.75) on NO TRADE pre-event; Low on any directional post-event bias until the operating state prints.",
"exact_action": "NO TRADE into July 22 AMC and July 23 BMO. Carry no pre-event GOOGL delta and no event-vol position. Arm conditional cash-equity rules to execute only after the call: long GOOGL if capex holds/raises with Cloud near/above 63%, backlog conversion on schedule, and ex-mark margins stable; negative delta only if capex >$190B alongside decelerating Cloud/margin/FCF (borrow verified first). Hedge with QQQ beta only. Treat TXN and STM as self-confirmed channel trades post-own-report, never as a GOOGL pair.",
"falsifiers": [
"A verified close-of-day July 22 chain shows implied move materially below the (re-based) reaction distribution with executable spreads/depth and a named causal channel \u2014 would justify a defined-risk long-vol trade.",
"Capex held/raised with Cloud near/above 63%, on-schedule backlog conversion, and stable ex-mark margins \u2014 validates post-call long GOOGL delta.",
"Capex >$190B with decelerating Cloud, weakening conversion, or margin/FCF compression not explained by timing \u2014 validates negative GOOGL delta (borrow permitting).",
"TXN data-center line accelerates past +90% YoY with strong guide while GOOGL disappoints (or the inverse) \u2014 the divergence itself becomes the actionable, most-informative observation.",
"Hot CPI or hawkish repricing into the window makes rates dominate and swamps any AI signal \u2014 deprioritize the entire AI thesis and defer to the financials/REIT rate exposure."
],
"follow_up_workflows": [
"Re-base all decision tests to the live guide: capex 'raise' = >$190B; 'hold' = $180-190B; Cloud vs ~63%; add backlog-conversion-vs-schedule as the H2 trigger.",
"On the print, run rules on ex-mark operating EPS, Cloud growth/margin, backlog, and capex \u2014 explicitly ignore GAAP EPS distorted by Anthropic/SpaceX marks.",
"Pull the July 22 close option chain (ATM straddle, skew, OI, depth, borrow) before any option or short expression; publish no trade on stale snapshots.",
"Estimate GOOGL/QQQ beta and hedge-ratio stability over 21/63d before sizing any market-neutral claim.",
"Sequence read-throughs: GOOGL/TXN July 22 AMC, then STM July 23 BMO; log the GOOGL-vs-TXN divergence as the night's highest-information observation.",
"Gate TXN and STM to self-confirmed channel trades only (data-center growth vs +90%; AI-server mix/guide vs elevated bars); no supplier basket, no GOOGL pair.",
"Reconcile dossier reaction magnitudes against contemporaneous reports for at least GOOGL before trusting any magnitude-based fade/chase rule.",
"Refresh the rates snapshot (hold/hike odds, front-end curve) day-of; if hawkish repricing dominates, deprioritize AI and manage the 41-name financials exposure.",
"Treat TTE as a power-channel watch (existing 1 GW PPA), not a standing trade; require a new contract or disclosed earnings contribution to act; avoid PCG/CMS as default proxies.",
"Post-entry, review within five sessions; extend hold only if Cloud growth, backlog conversion, margins, and issuer guidance confirm direction (54% persistence gives no default edge)."
],
"strongest_bear_case": [
"Anthropic mark-to-market could roughly triple reported EPS (~$8 vs ~$2.87 model), a large headline-driven whipsaw with zero operating content.",
"Q1 beat was ~all non-operating: $37.7B other income drove it, ex-marks EPS would have missed by a cent, and FCF fell 47% YoY.",
"Overbuild risk: ~13% of peer (MSFT) capex is component-price inflation, so a raise can signal cost, not units, and pressure both GOOGL and suppliers.",
"Macro tail points the wrong way: ~75% hold / ~25% HIKE, zero cuts priced, FOMC July 28-29 (six days later) threatens the 41-name financials cluster the plan assumed was a cut trade.",
"TXN (+69% YTD, consensus in upper half of guide) and STM (+164% YTD, prior 31.6% miss) enter with elevated bars\u2014disappointment is the cleaner risk channel.",
"Supply-constraint reaffirmation is ambiguous: tight compute can cap near-term Cloud growth even as spend rises (UBS: $55B above expectation lifted 2027 EPS only ~1%)."
],
"strongest_bull_case": [
"Demand-validation regime is live, not hypothetical: $180-190B capex with Cloud +63% to $20B, backlog $462B nearly doubled QoQ, record 36.1% operating margin, supply-constrained language.",
"April +10% reaction to a capex RAISE shows this tape rewards 'capex-with-proof,' directly refuting the zero-sum leg.",
"GOOGL trades ~12% below its 52-week high despite the fundamentals, leaving room if Q2 confirms.",
"Backlog math: >50% of $462B over 24 months implies >$28.9B/quarter vs $20B Q1 Cloud, a mechanically strong forward cover.",
"Post-call long GOOGL cash delta is a clean, executable expression if Cloud/backlog/margin confirm, with QQQ as the only sane hedge."
],
"unresolved": [
"Whether July 22 holds $180-190B, pushes above $190B, or quantifies the flagged 2027 'significant increase' \u2014 no sourced probability exists.",
"Q2 Cloud operating margin, TPU-vs-merchant-silicon mix, and Wiz-related margin-drag timing (needed for H4/H11).",
"Whether Q2 Cloud revenue confirms the >50%-of-$462B/24-month conversion schedule \u2014 first observable print of the key ratio.",
"Reconciliation of dossier reaction windows (Feb -2.0% vs press-reported ~5-7%) before any rule keyed to dossier magnitudes is trusted.",
"Live event-day ATM straddle at July 22 close, IV-crush economics, spread/depth \u2014 snapshots are July 16-21 only.",
"GOOGL beta/idiosyncratic share vs QQQ \u2014 in-universe hedge confirmed infeasible, but the index hedge ratio is unpinned.",
"Exact overnight timestamps for TXN, STM, NOK, INFY, MBLY to isolate any pre-own-earnings Google read-through.",
"Whether financials' 95.1% positive-since survives the July 28-29 FOMC / next CPI \u2014 dominant risk to 41 names sits outside the event-study conditioning.",
"Borrow, financing, and collateral terms for any negative-delta or short-vol expression.",
"Materiality of preview-flagged noise (talent exits, chip delay, DOJ appeal timing)."
],
"why_now": [
"Two dated catalysts (July 22 AMC GOOGL/TXN, July 23 BMO STM et al.) resolve the single largest branch point\u20142026 capex vs $190B, Cloud pace, and backlog conversion\u2014so waiting is edge-preserving, not edge-forfeiting.",
"Nothing is currently mispriced enough to justify pre-positioning: option vol is fairly valued and scenario probabilities are uncalibratable from the record.",
"The informational value is concentrated in the print itself and in the same-night GOOGL/TXN divergence, which cannot be front-run without a live chain and clean pre-own-earnings windows."
]
},
"audit": {
"blocking_gaps": [
"Primary Alphabet Q1 filing/call confirming the revised capex guide, Cloud growth, backlog, margins, and 2027 language.",
"Underlying adjusted-price data and complete methodology for all 142 event reactions, paths, relative returns, and correlations.",
"Standardized non-overlapping post-event horizons for both prior events.",
"Reconciliation of GOOGL's February -2.0% table reaction with contemporaneous -5% to -7% reports.",
"Primary IR confirmation of the July 22-23 dates, sessions, and exact timestamps for relevant issuers.",
"July 22 close option chain with expiry, straddle premium, bid/ask, skew, depth, and IV-crush assumptions.",
"Current operating consensus, valuation, and post-gap entry thresholds needed to assess post-release trade economics.",
"GOOGL/QQQ beta stability, liquidity, borrow, financing, sizing, and risk limits.",
"Issuer-level Alphabet/hyperscaler exposure for TXN, STM, NOK, INFY, and MBLY.",
"A consistent timestamped rates snapshot resolving the conflicting hold/hike probabilities.",
"Auditable ex-mark EPS, tax, share-count, operating-income, and cash-flow bridge.",
"Evidence supporting any five-day holding rule or correlation-based relative-value payoff."
],
"checks_passed": [
"Cluster counts sum to 142; 10 AI names leave 132/142, or 93.0%, outside AI.",
"Aggregate percentages imply about 74 positive reactions, 107 positive post paths, and 77 same-sign paths.",
"AI median absolute reaction 6.7% versus 3.3% overall is 2.03x; 60.0% equals 6/10.",
"GOOGL April compounding is correct: 1.10 x 0.902 - 1 = -0.78%; -16.0% relative implies QQQ +6.2%.",
"The latest-event horizons span roughly 67-131 calendar days; GOOGL April 29-July 21 is 83 days.",
"Conditional on the revised guide being authentic, midpoint capex rose $180B to $185B, or 2.8%; Cloud growth rose 15 points from 48% to 63%.",
"More than half of $462B is more than $231B, averaging more than $28.9B over eight quarters; the record correctly notes the period mismatch.",
"At $348.60, a 5.4% move gives approximately $329.78-$367.42; comparisons with 6.0%, 6.7%, and 4.8% are arithmetically correct.",
"$25B/$190B equals 13.2%, though Microsoft pricing inflation cannot be imputed to Alphabet.",
"No exact option contract, premium, break-even, position size, or payoff is published."
],
"corrected_claims": [
"Treat $180B-$190B and 63% as provisional live baselines pending primary confirmation; if confirmed, above $190B is a raise and below $180B is a cut.",
"Cloud growth moving from 48% to 63% is +15 percentage points, or +31.3% relatively, not a doubling.",
"The record demonstrates no reliable pre-event directional or volatility edge; it cannot prove that none exists.",
"April is a counterexample to a deterministic 'higher capex always hurts GOOGL' rule, not proof that capex caused the positive reaction.",
"Option value is indeterminate, not demonstrably cheap, rich, or fair.",
"Any pre-event flat recommendation should be limited to GOOGL and Google-linked capex expressions, not all 142 earnings releases.",
"Cloud, backlog, margin, and capex states are monitoring conditions, not executable long/short rules until market expectations and post-release price are incorporated.",
"Five sessions may be a discretionary risk-review interval but is not evidence-derived.",
"The supplied correlations establish no validated in-universe GOOGL hedge; QQQ hedge effectiveness also remains unmeasured.",
"The backlog figures indicate contracted demand but do not create a comparable backlog-to-capex coverage ratio or a stock-return trigger.",
"TXN and STM should be evaluated on their own results; their divergence from GOOGL cannot be labeled confirmation without customer exposure and clean timing.",
"Use qualitative macro uncertainty unless a single timestamped, authoritative rate-probability source is supplied."
],
"issues": [
"The live $180B-$190B capex and 63% Cloud baselines rely on unattached citation-index summaries and conflict with the section labeled 'Verified Alphabet baseline.' Primary Alphabet evidence is required. Also, 63% is only 31.3% above 48%, not more than double it.",
"The 142-name study is not reproducible: adjusted-price sources, dividend/corporate-action treatment, AMC/BMO window rules, and QQQ calculations are absent. Prior-event paths also overlap later earnings events, while aggregate statistics appear to use only latest events.",
"GOOGL's February reaction is reported as -2.0% in the table but roughly -5% to -7% elsewhere. This blocks all reaction-threshold, fade, and implied-move comparisons.",
"Calling 5.3%-5.4% volatility 'fairly valued' or saying nothing is mispriced does not follow. Expiry, premium, skew, spreads, IV crush, and live close data are missing, and comparison sets disagree.",
"'The pre-event edge does not exist' is too strong; the evidence establishes only that no edge has been demonstrated.",
"One April observation is inconsistent with a deterministic zero-sum rule but does not causally falsify a probabilistic capex thesis; Cloud growth, margins, accounting marks, and market factors confound it.",
"The post-call long/negative-delta instructions lack surprise-versus-consensus thresholds, post-gap entry prices, valuation, sizing, stop, and expected payoff. The blanket 'NO TRADE into July 22/23' also cannot cover all 142 issuer-specific releases.",
"The five-session review/holding rule is unsupported: supplied post paths span 67-131 days and contain no five-day event study.",
"The 0.75 confidence is uncalibrated. The exact 74.9% hold/25.1% hike probabilities are timestamp-sensitive and conflict with another cited hold estimate above 85%.",
"A maximum correlation near 0.42 does not prove in-universe hedging is infeasible, and r-squared is not hedge effectiveness. Pair trades also require betas, spread stationarity, residual thresholds, and costs.",
"The ~$8 EPS scenario and exact one-cent ex-mark miss rely on secondary or single-source estimates without a tax, share-count, or mark-to-market bridge; they must remain scenarios, not facts.",
"TXN data-center growth and STM AI-server exposure do not establish Alphabet sensitivity. Likewise, backlog/capex 'coverage' mixes two-year Cloud revenue with one-year consolidated capex and supports no valuation or payoff threshold."
],
"passed": false,
"publication_status": "blocked"
}
}