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Audit a four-leg monetary worldview claim by claim against primary data (FRED, Z.1, IIF, IEA, BoE): most money is new; assets-to-money is the object to track; credit = belief in the future; money is energy and will be reallocated to credible printers as the compute bid forces printing.

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Audit a four-leg monetary worldview claim by claim against primary data (FRED, Z.1, IIF, IEA, BoE): most money is new; assets-to-money is the object to track; credit = belief in the future; money is energy and will be reallocated to credible printers as the compute bid forces printing.
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Verdict. The slogan is wrong; the instrument is right. 33.1% (not most) of M2 is post-2020; equities/M2 hit a record 4.93x in Q4 2025 vs 4.31x in 1999; credit/GDP has been flat since 2019 (belief-leverage leg fails); money-as-energy breaks on conservation (banks create, repayment destroys) but survives repair as 'money flows to credible printers because it is not conserved.' Calibrated: P(real GDP >=8% any year 2026-2035) = 0.03 [0.01-0.07]; P(AI capex >=5% of GDP by 2032) = 0.12 [0.05-0.22].

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Money, Credit, and the Compute Bid — Axion Macro Theory Dossier

Verdict. The slogan is wrong; the instrument is right. 33.1% (not most) of M2 is post-2020; equities/M2 hit a record 4.93x in Q4 2025 vs 4.31x in 1999; credit/GDP has been flat since 2019 (belief-leverage leg fails); money-as-energy breaks on conservation (banks create, repayment destroys) but survives repair as 'money flows to credible printers because it is not conserved.' Calibrated: P(real GDP >=8% any year 2026-2035) = 0.03 [0.01-0.07]; P(AI capex >=5% of GDP by 2032) = 0.12 [0.05-0.22].

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  • Revision 1 · Jul 8, 2026

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