The answer
Verdict. AVOID committing deposit-level capital (curiosity loop, 63 questions, $255.75; outcome distribution 26% favourable / 42% muddled / 32% downside, only 6% on the legal channel opening). Las Cristinas (~24 Moz extractable at $3,000), Brisas (~11) and Choco 10 (~5) are tier-one on a bank's page (NPV5% $4-14B each) and a tenth of that at a Venezuela-adjusted rate; no private party holds valid title, the April 2026 law has no revival clause for the 2022 revocation, OFAC's licences exclude in-country mining, and the Citgo sale conveys shares not ground. Live Axion forecasts: P(financed construction decision by 2029)=0.08, P(first pour by 2030)=0.08, P(major signs by 2028)=0.07, P(OFAC authorises a mine)=0.22, P(Citgo closes by mid-2027)=0.15; GRZ double 0.30 vs halve 0.48. Only defensible expression: option-sized GRZ into the 12 Sep / 21 Oct events.
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Venezuela Gold: the NI 43-101 ledger — top-10 deposits, top-5 NPV, and who can own them
Verdict. AVOID committing deposit-level capital (curiosity loop, 63 questions, $255.75; outcome distribution 26% favourable / 42% muddled / 32% downside, only 6% on the legal channel opening). Las Cristinas (~24 Moz extractable at $3,000), Brisas (~11) and Choco 10 (~5) are tier-one on a bank's page (NPV5% $4-14B each) and a tenth of that at a Venezuela-adjusted rate; no private party holds valid title, the April 2026 law has no revival clause for the 2022 revocation, OFAC's licences exclude in-country mining, and the Citgo sale conveys shares not ground. Live Axion forecasts: P(financed construction decision by 2029)=0.08, P(first pour by 2030)=0.08, P(major signs by 2028)=0.07, P(OFAC authorises a mine)=0.22, P(Citgo closes by mid-2027)=0.15; GRZ double 0.30 vs halve 0.48. Only defensible expression: option-sized GRZ into the 12 Sep / 21 Oct events.
Full published report: https://vengold-dossier.us-east-1.gists.org
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- Revision 1 · Aug 21, 2026
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