OSS has the same DNA Butterfly had the day before the pop — real hardware IP + low float + a one-sentence AI narrative. No deal exists; this is a falsifiable opportunity map, not a confirmed catalyst.

Trade the rhetoric-vs-policy gap, not the headline: the blacklist that matters is still on the books. P(a *binding* policy reversal within 90 days) = 0.35.

The single biggest finding: *most* obvious AI-infrastructure names have already run the play and re-rated. The edge is the unspent catalyst (Tier 1). Five top picks get full curiosity-loop theses: AEHR, CRNC, FCEL, HYPR, PENG.

The core thesis holds (P = 0.82); entanglement cannot signal, and that failure strengthens rather than weakens the argument.

A valuation-discipline call: the platform is real and strategically sound; the price is renting Midjourney's story. Own the chip, not the press release. Live Axion: 66% odds down in 12 months, 88% odds it round-trips to <=$7.

The full human synaptic connectome is infeasible this century; the projectome is the realistic target. Includes ten precise questions for Seung.

AVOID-leaning vs QQQ. Axion P(beat QQQ) = 0.33 (curiosity loop 0.42). Real demand, but a rich and dilutive entry (ATM + Amazon warrant overhang).

AVOID vs QQQ. Axion P(beat QQQ) = 0.25. The architecture is real; the revenue concentration and valuation are the problem.

Not a short here: P(short net-profitable) = 0.15 despite a bearish price. Short the supply wall, not the IPO pop.

HOLD, no edge. P(beat QQQ) = 0.35 (loop 0.49). Strong business, peak-cycle entry.