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# Report: Will humanity survive until 2050?

Report ID: a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a
Question ID: q_6a935e5d531de2a20a
Latest revision: 1
Revision readable free: 1
Evidence through: 2026-09-08
Forecast horizon: 2050-01-01
Published at: Not exposed by the record. Do not substitute the evidence date.
Access: Free.
Price for this revision: 0 cents.
Sources recorded: 8
Words recorded: 1318
Downloads: 10
Unique buyers: 0

[READ FREE MARKDOWN](https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/stale)
[CHECK CURRENT REVISION](https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/fresh)
[METADATA JSON](https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/teaser)
[VIEW QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/will-humanity-survive-until-2050-q_6a935e5d531de2a20a)

## Answer preview

The report estimates a 98% probability that at least one living biological human exists at 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2050.. Its reported range is 94% to 99%. This preview is not the report's full analysis.

## Read the full report

This page is the access and citation document. The report itself is the Markdown resource below, not a second generated summary.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/stale

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/stale'

Purpose: Read the newest freed revision as Markdown. A 404 means no revision has been freed yet.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/fresh

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/fresh'

Purpose: Request the current revision without credentials: a free body, a 402 quote, or 403 headstart.
Authentication: None.
Without a bearer key or payment header this request only returns the quote. It records nothing.

Neither command includes credentials or a payment header. The first reads a free revision if one exists. The second may return a free body, a 402 quote, or 403 headstart. It does not authorize payment.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_read_stale for report a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a to read the newest freed revision. Call qmarket_read_fresh for report a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a to request the current revision, with no spending unless already approved. For accountless USDC payment, use the HTTP fresh request and x402 instead. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## Check the fit for your task

Before reading or paying, send your task with the report's question. The reply is JSON: {"state": "Covered" | "Partial" | "Not covered", "why": "..."}. Partial and Not covered mean the report is about your subject but not your question, or about another subject.

POST https://notthelivesite.com/api/task-fit
Content-Type: application/json
{"task":"<your task, in one or two sentences>","question":"Will humanity survive until 2050?","summary":"As of 2026-09-08, humanity has an estimated 98% probability of surviving to January 1, 2050, with a plausible range of 94 to 99. A catastrophe killing at least 10% of the world's population is a different and more likely outcome, estimated here at 8%, with a range of 3 to 20. These are editorial judgements informed by published risk surveys, whose participants disagree sharply and mostly forecast much longer horizons."}

curl --silent --show-error \
  -X POST \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  --data '{"task":"<your task, in one or two sentences>","question":"Will humanity survive until 2050?","summary":"As of 2026-09-08, humanity has an estimated 98% probability of surviving to January 1, 2050, with a plausible range of 94 to 99. A catastrophe killing at least 10% of the world's population is a different and more likely outcome, estimated here at 8%, with a range of 3 to 20. These are editorial judgements informed by published risk surveys, whose participants disagree sharply and mostly forecast much longer horizons."}' \
  'https://notthelivesite.com/api/task-fit'

Purpose: Ask whether this report covers your task. The site's own model answers Covered, Partial or Not covered with one reason, from the report's question and scope. No credentials, no charge; the answer is advice, not access.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

## JSON

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/teaser

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a/teaser'

Purpose: Read the report's metadata and teaser as JSON.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

This returns metadata and a teaser as JSON. It is not a full-report JSON endpoint. The report body is text/markdown. Its Forecast data section contains a JSON block where the report provides one. Extract that block without renaming its fields.

## Citation

Use this line only after reading the corresponding revision:

Q Market. "Will humanity survive until 2050?" Report a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a, revision 1; question q_6a935e5d531de2a20a; evidence through 2026-09-08. https://notthelivesite.com/r/a_demo_6a935e5d531de2a20a

Both API read URLs can change which revision they present. Keep the actual retrieved report with your citation. If the returned revision differs, update the citation.

## Sources cited by the report

- https://forecastingresearch.org/research/near-term-xpt-accuracy
- https://theprecipice.com/faq
- https://forecastingresearch.org/research/existential-risk-persuasion-tournament
- https://forecastingresearch.org/research/roots-of-disagreement-on-ai-risk
- https://www.who.int/japan/news/detail-global/05-05-2022-14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021
- https://www.who.int/news/item/20-05-2025-world-health-assembly-adopts-historic-pandemic-agreement-to-make-the-world-more-equitable-and-safer-from-future-pandemics
- https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/
- https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/nuclear-risks-grow-new-arms-race-looms-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now

Those links are sources cited by the report, not a claim that this page has reverified the underlying research.

## Revisions and access

Known state: Latest revision 1. Free.
Full publication history: Not available in the record. Do not synthesize one.

A newly published revision is funders-only for 24 hours. Between 24 and 72 hours, a reader's first purchase from this report costs 10 cents and later purchases cost 50 cents. From 72 hours it is free. An older revision becomes free earlier when replaced. Funders read every revision free. Owning one revision does not imply free access to the next.

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