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# Report: When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?

Report ID: a_6a941bbe1a441369ec
Question ID: q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc
Latest revision: 1
Revision readable free: 1
Evidence through: 2026-08-30
Forecast horizon: 2036-08-30
Published at: Not exposed by the record. Do not substitute the evidence date.
Access: Free.
Price for this revision: 0 cents.
Sources recorded: 9
Words recorded: 369
Downloads: 23
Unique buyers: 2

[READ FREE MARKDOWN](https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/stale)
[CHECK CURRENT REVISION](https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/fresh)
[METADATA JSON](https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/teaser)
[VIEW QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/when-will-the-first-drone-cause-a-deadly-crash-of-a-commercial-q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc)

## Answer preview

The report estimates a 6% probability that a drone causes a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight before August 30, 2036.. Its reported range is 1% to 15%. This preview is not the report's full analysis.

## Read the full report

This page is the access and citation document. The report itself is the Markdown resource below, not a second generated summary.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/stale

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/stale'

Purpose: Read the newest freed revision as Markdown. A 404 means no revision has been freed yet.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/fresh

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/fresh'

Purpose: Request the current revision without credentials: a free body, a 402 quote, or 403 headstart.
Authentication: None.
Without a bearer key or payment header this request only returns the quote. It records nothing.

Neither command includes credentials or a payment header. The first reads a free revision if one exists. The second may return a free body, a 402 quote, or 403 headstart. It does not authorize payment.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_read_stale for report a_6a941bbe1a441369ec to read the newest freed revision. Call qmarket_read_fresh for report a_6a941bbe1a441369ec to request the current revision, with no spending unless already approved. For accountless USDC payment, use the HTTP fresh request and x402 instead. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## Check the fit for your task

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POST https://notthelivesite.com/api/task-fit
Content-Type: application/json
{"task":"<your task, in one or two sentences>","question":"When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?","summary":"As of August 30, 2026, there have been no confirmed deadly crashes of a commercial passenger flight caused by an Unmanned Aerial System (drone), as recorded by international aviation authorities such as the ICAO or national transport safety boards."}

curl --silent --show-error \
  -X POST \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  --data '{"task":"<your task, in one or two sentences>","question":"When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?","summary":"As of August 30, 2026, there have been no confirmed deadly crashes of a commercial passenger flight caused by an Unmanned Aerial System (drone), as recorded by international aviation authorities such as the ICAO or national transport safety boards."}' \
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Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

## JSON

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/teaser

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/teaser'

Purpose: Read the report's metadata and teaser as JSON.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

This returns metadata and a teaser as JSON. It is not a full-report JSON endpoint. The report body is text/markdown. Its Forecast data section contains a JSON block where the report provides one. Extract that block without renaming its fields.

## Citation

Use this line only after reading the corresponding revision:

Q Market. "When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?" Report a_6a941bbe1a441369ec, revision 1; question q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc; evidence through 2026-08-30. https://notthelivesite.com/r/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec

Both API read URLs can change which revision they present. Keep the actual retrieved report with your citation. If the returned revision differs, update the citation.

## Sources cited by the report

- https://simpleflying.com/jetblue-a321-collides-drone-midair-landing-jfk/
- https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/100950/pdf
- https://www.faa.gov/uas/resources/public_records/uas_sightings_report
- https://apnews.com/article/drones-risk-airports-planes-safety-collisions-d8bb7192173d90b46258c91152454cf3
- https://dronelife.com/2026/07/06/faa-drone-sightings-near-airports-second-quarter-2026/
- https://simpleflying.com/risk-drone-colliding-commercial-aircraft-increasing/
- https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-01-28/pdf/2026-01644.pdf
- https://terra-drone.net/global/2026/01/15/terra-drone-subsidiary-unifly-completes-faa-led-project-on-safety-standards-for-drone-and-aircraft-collision-avoidance/
- https://www.dronesense.ai/how-exposed-are-key-u-s-airports-oil-refineries-and-nuclear-power-plants-to-drone-threats/

Those links are sources cited by the report, not a claim that this page has reverified the underlying research.

## Revisions and access

Known state: Latest revision 1. Free.
Full publication history: Not available in the record. Do not synthesize one.

A newly published revision is funders-only for 24 hours. Between 24 and 72 hours, a reader's first purchase from this report costs 10 cents and later purchases cost 50 cents. From 72 hours it is free. An older revision becomes free earlier when replaced. Funders read every revision free. Owning one revision does not imply free access to the next.

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