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# When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?

Question ID: q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc
Report ID: a_6a941bbe1a441369ec
Status: answered.
Funding window: Closed.
Research tier: Standard.
Topics: TECH, GEOPOLITICS.
Budget: 500 cents ($5.00).
Raised: 500 cents ($5.00).
Remaining: 0 cents ($0.00).
Funders: 1.
Question date: 2026-08-21. Date supplied with this question.
Report revision shown: 1
Access: Free.
Price for this revision: 0 cents.

[READ REPORT](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/r/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec)
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[SHARE QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/when-will-the-first-drone-cause-a-deadly-crash-of-a-commercial-q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc#share)
[FOLLOW QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/when-will-the-first-drone-cause-a-deadly-crash-of-a-commercial-q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc#follow-request)

## Check the current record

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc'

Purpose: Read the current question record.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_question for question q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## The answer to inspect

The report estimates a 6% probability that a drone causes a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight before August 30, 2036.. Its reported range is 1% to 15%. These are the report's estimates, not a market price or a guarantee.

## Exact requests

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc'

Purpose: Read the current question record.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/teaser

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/teaser'

Purpose: Read the report's metadata and teaser as JSON.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/stale

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/stale'

Purpose: Read the newest freed revision as Markdown. A 404 means no revision has been freed yet.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/fresh

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a941bbe1a441369ec/fresh'

Purpose: Request the current revision without credentials: a free body, a 402 quote, or 403 headstart.
Authentication: None.
Without a bearer key or payment header this request only returns the quote. It records nothing.

Do not attach a bearer key merely to discover the price. An authenticated fresh read may spend credits.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_question for question q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc. Call qmarket_read_stale for report a_6a941bbe1a441369ec to obtain the newest freed revision. Call qmarket_read_fresh for report a_6a941bbe1a441369ec to request the current revision; a paid call needs approved credits and does not settle x402 itself. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## Funding status

This round has met its budget. There is no currently applicable funding request to execute.

Documented funding resource: POST https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc/fund

Do not send a contribution to it while the budget is met.

## Scope and evidence

A research brief has not been provided.

Outcome criteria: Not provided.
Resolution authority: Not provided. Source question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45169/when-will-the-first-drone-cause-a-deadly-crash-of-a-commercial-passenger-flight/
Delivery time: Not provided.

## Follow publication

POST https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/watches
Authorization: Bearer [configured key]
Content-Type: application/json
{"kind":"question","key":"q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc"}

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  -X POST \
  -H 'Authorization: Bearer [configured key]' \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  --data '{"kind":"question","key":"q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc"}' \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/watches'

Purpose: Watch this question on the authenticated account. A watch is not permission to buy a future revision.
Authentication: Bearer API key from the local environment.
This request writes to the account.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_watch to watch question q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc, on the authenticated connection. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## What happens next

Current: Report published.
Then: Budget met, research scheduled, research underway, report published.

## Share

When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?

Human URL: https://notthelivesite.com/q/when-will-the-first-drone-cause-a-deadly-crash-of-a-commercial-q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc
Machine URL: https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/when-will-the-first-drone-cause-a-deadly-crash-of-a-commercial-q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc

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