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# What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on September 15, 2026?

Question ID: q_6a932ae0c09779e228
Report ID: a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228
Status: answered.
Funding window: Closed.
Research tier: Standard.
Topic: ELECTIONS.
Budget: 500 cents ($5.00).
Raised: 0 cents ($0.00).
Remaining: 500 cents ($5.00).
Funders: 0.
Question date: 2026-08-18. Date supplied with this question.
Report revision shown: 1
Access: Free.
Price for this revision: 0 cents.

[READ REPORT](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/r/a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228)
[ALL QUESTIONS](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/questions)
[SHARE QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/what-will-democrats-lead-be-in-the-congressional-generic-ballot-q_6a932ae0c09779e228#share)
[FOLLOW QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/what-will-democrats-lead-be-in-the-congressional-generic-ballot-q_6a932ae0c09779e228#follow-request)

## Check the current record

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae0c09779e228

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae0c09779e228'

Purpose: Read the current question record.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_question for question q_6a932ae0c09779e228. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## The answer to inspect

The report estimates a 90% probability that democrats lead Republicans by at least 3.0 percentage points in the RealClearPolling national generic congressional vote average at the end of September 15, 2026, Eastern time.. Its reported range is 80% to 95%. These are the report's estimates, not a market price or a guarantee.

## Exact requests

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae0c09779e228

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae0c09779e228'

Purpose: Read the current question record.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228/teaser

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228/teaser'

Purpose: Read the report's metadata and teaser as JSON.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228/stale

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228/stale'

Purpose: Read the newest freed revision as Markdown. A 404 means no revision has been freed yet.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228/fresh

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228/fresh'

Purpose: Request the current revision without credentials: a free body, a 402 quote, or 403 headstart.
Authentication: None.
Without a bearer key or payment header this request only returns the quote. It records nothing.

Do not attach a bearer key merely to discover the price. An authenticated fresh read may spend credits.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_question for question q_6a932ae0c09779e228. Call qmarket_read_stale for report a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228 to obtain the newest freed revision. Call qmarket_read_fresh for report a_demo_6a932ae0c09779e228 to request the current revision; a paid call needs approved credits and does not settle x402 itself. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## Funding status

This round has met its budget. There is no currently applicable funding request to execute.

Documented funding resource: POST https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae0c09779e228/fund

Do not send a contribution to it while the budget is met.

## Scope and evidence

A research brief has not been provided.

Outcome criteria: Not provided.
Resolution authority: Not provided. Source question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45221/democrats-lead-be-in-the-congressional-generic-ballot-on-september-15-2026/
Delivery time: Not provided.

## Follow publication

POST https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/watches
Authorization: Bearer [configured key]
Content-Type: application/json
{"kind":"question","key":"q_6a932ae0c09779e228"}

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  -X POST \
  -H 'Authorization: Bearer [configured key]' \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  --data '{"kind":"question","key":"q_6a932ae0c09779e228"}' \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/watches'

Purpose: Watch this question on the authenticated account. A watch is not permission to buy a future revision.
Authentication: Bearer API key from the local environment.
This request writes to the account.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_watch to watch question q_6a932ae0c09779e228, on the authenticated connection. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## What happens next

Current: Report published.
Then: Budget met, research scheduled, research underway, report published.

## Share

What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on September 15, 2026?

Human URL: https://notthelivesite.com/q/what-will-democrats-lead-be-in-the-congressional-generic-ballot-q_6a932ae0c09779e228
Machine URL: https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/what-will-democrats-lead-be-in-the-congressional-generic-ballot-q_6a932ae0c09779e228

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