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# Fervo IPO'd 13 May 2026 at $27 and trades ~$35 (~$10B) on ~$0.14M of 2025 revenue, with Cape Station under construction and a non-binding Google 3 GW framework. Decide whether it can 2x/10x and work out the float, the lockup, competitors, and the upside mechanics.

Question ID: q_6a932ae218c2d51b70
Report ID: a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8
Status: answered.
Funding window: Closed.
Research tier: Standard.
Topic: FRVO.
Budget: 1500 cents ($15.00).
Raised: 0 cents ($0.00).
Remaining: 1500 cents ($15.00).
Funders: 0.
Question date: 2026-06-22. Date supplied with this question.
Report revision shown: 1
Access: Free.
Price for this revision: 0 cents.

[READ REPORT](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/r/a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8)
[ALL QUESTIONS](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/questions)
[SHARE QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/fervo-ipo-d-13-may-2026-at-27-and-trades-35-10b-on-0-14m-of-q_6a932ae218c2d51b70#share)
[FOLLOW QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/fervo-ipo-d-13-may-2026-at-27-and-trades-35-10b-on-0-14m-of-q_6a932ae218c2d51b70#follow-request)

## Check the current record

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae218c2d51b70

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae218c2d51b70'

Purpose: Read the current question record.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_question for question q_6a932ae218c2d51b70. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## The answer to inspect

Verdict. A call option, not an easy 2x. P(double,12mo) 0.23 vs P(halve,12mo) 0.48; 5x 0.07, 10x 0.025. ~205M shares unlock ~10 Nov into an ~80M float (Arnold/Centaurus among them). Cape first power 0.52, 500MW Google PPA 0.27, beats-QQQ 0.34. Starter size only; size for the lockup.

## Exact requests

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae218c2d51b70

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae218c2d51b70'

Purpose: Read the current question record.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8/teaser

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8/teaser'

Purpose: Read the report's metadata and teaser as JSON.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8/stale

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8/stale'

Purpose: Read the newest freed revision as Markdown. A 404 means no revision has been freed yet.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8/fresh

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8/fresh'

Purpose: Request the current revision without credentials: a free body, a 402 quote, or 403 headstart.
Authentication: None.
Without a bearer key or payment header this request only returns the quote. It records nothing.

Do not attach a bearer key merely to discover the price. An authenticated fresh read may spend credits.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_question for question q_6a932ae218c2d51b70. Call qmarket_read_stale for report a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8 to obtain the newest freed revision. Call qmarket_read_fresh for report a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8 to request the current revision; a paid call needs approved credits and does not settle x402 itself. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## Funding status

This round has met its budget. There is no currently applicable funding request to execute.

Documented funding resource: POST https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae218c2d51b70/fund

Do not send a contribution to it while the budget is met.

## Scope and evidence

A research brief has not been provided.

Outcome criteria: Not provided.
Resolution authority: Not provided.
Delivery time: Not provided.

## Follow publication

POST https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/watches
Authorization: Bearer [configured key]
Content-Type: application/json
{"kind":"question","key":"q_6a932ae218c2d51b70"}

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  -X POST \
  -H 'Authorization: Bearer [configured key]' \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  --data '{"kind":"question","key":"q_6a932ae218c2d51b70"}' \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/watches'

Purpose: Watch this question on the authenticated account. A watch is not permission to buy a future revision.
Authentication: Bearer API key from the local environment.
This request writes to the account.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_watch to watch question q_6a932ae218c2d51b70, on the authenticated connection. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## What happens next

Current: Report published.
Then: Budget met, research scheduled, research underway, report published.

## Share

Fervo IPO'd 13 May 2026 at $27 and trades ~$35 (~$10B) on ~$0.14M of 2025 revenue, with Cape Station under construction and a non-binding Google 3 GW framework. Decide whether it can 2x/10x and work out the float, the lockup, competitors, and the upside mechanics.

Human URL: https://notthelivesite.com/q/fervo-ipo-d-13-may-2026-at-27-and-trades-35-10b-on-0-14m-of-q_6a932ae218c2d51b70
Machine URL: https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/fervo-ipo-d-13-may-2026-at-27-and-trades-35-10b-on-0-14m-of-q_6a932ae218c2d51b70

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[Human version](https://notthelivesite.com/q/fervo-ipo-d-13-may-2026-at-27-and-trades-35-10b-on-0-14m-of-q_6a932ae218c2d51b70)

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