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# Explain why MP trades the way it does: a factor study of what sets its daily price (momentum crowd vs semis vs sector), five years of coupling regimes and the one decoupling, the ownership register from the Molycorp consortium to the DoD, and calibrated forecasts on the coming year.

Question ID: q_6a932ae24f43776c15
Report ID: a_6a932ae2edb44422ed
Status: answered.
Funding window: Closed.
Research tier: Standard.
Topic: MP.
Budget: 1500 cents ($15.00).
Raised: 0 cents ($0.00).
Remaining: 1500 cents ($15.00).
Funders: 0.
Question date: 2026-07-08. Date supplied with this question.
Report revision shown: 1
Access: Free.
Price for this revision: 0 cents.

[READ REPORT](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/r/a_6a932ae2edb44422ed)
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[SHARE QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/explain-why-mp-trades-the-way-it-does-a-factor-study-of-what-q_6a932ae24f43776c15#share)
[FOLLOW QUESTION](https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/explain-why-mp-trades-the-way-it-does-a-factor-study-of-what-q_6a932ae24f43776c15#follow-request)

## Check the current record

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae24f43776c15

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae24f43776c15'

Purpose: Read the current question record.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_question for question q_6a932ae24f43776c15. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## The answer to inspect

Verdict. AVOID as core vs QQQ; policy-catalyst position at most. Axion P(beats QQQ)=0.37, P(2x by Jul 2028)=0.30 vs P(halve by Jul 2027)=0.23. The 'trades with semis' effect is beta (partial corr 0.10); the momentum-crowd coupling is real (partial 0.47–0.52, shift p=0.02) and sector-wide. Decorrelates only on MP-sized policy shocks; the dated one is the 10 Nov 2026 MOFCOM suspension expiry.

## Exact requests

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae24f43776c15

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae24f43776c15'

Purpose: Read the current question record.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae2edb44422ed/teaser

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae2edb44422ed/teaser'

Purpose: Read the report's metadata and teaser as JSON.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae2edb44422ed/stale

curl --silent --show-error \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae2edb44422ed/stale'

Purpose: Read the newest freed revision as Markdown. A 404 means no revision has been freed yet.
Authentication: None.
This request reads. No credentials, no payment.

GET https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae2edb44422ed/fresh

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/artifacts/a_6a932ae2edb44422ed/fresh'

Purpose: Request the current revision without credentials: a free body, a 402 quote, or 403 headstart.
Authentication: None.
Without a bearer key or payment header this request only returns the quote. It records nothing.

Do not attach a bearer key merely to discover the price. An authenticated fresh read may spend credits.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_question for question q_6a932ae24f43776c15. Call qmarket_read_stale for report a_6a932ae2edb44422ed to obtain the newest freed revision. Call qmarket_read_fresh for report a_6a932ae2edb44422ed to request the current revision; a paid call needs approved credits and does not settle x402 itself. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## Funding status

This round has met its budget. There is no currently applicable funding request to execute.

Documented funding resource: POST https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/questions/q_6a932ae24f43776c15/fund

Do not send a contribution to it while the budget is met.

## Scope and evidence

A research brief has not been provided.

Outcome criteria: Not provided.
Resolution authority: Not provided.
Delivery time: Not provided.

## Follow publication

POST https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/watches
Authorization: Bearer [configured key]
Content-Type: application/json
{"kind":"question","key":"q_6a932ae24f43776c15"}

curl --silent --show-error --include \
  -X POST \
  -H 'Authorization: Bearer [configured key]' \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  --data '{"kind":"question","key":"q_6a932ae24f43776c15"}' \
  'https://api.notthelivesite.com/v1/watches'

Purpose: Watch this question on the authenticated account. A watch is not permission to buy a future revision.
Authentication: Bearer API key from the local environment.
This request writes to the account.

MCP tool-use instruction: Call qmarket_watch to watch question q_6a932ae24f43776c15, on the authenticated connection. Use the connected server's advertised input schema.

## What happens next

Current: Report published.
Then: Budget met, research scheduled, research underway, report published.

## Share

Explain why MP trades the way it does: a factor study of what sets its daily price (momentum crowd vs semis vs sector), five years of coupling regimes and the one decoupling, the ownership register from the Molycorp consortium to the DoD, and calibrated forecasts on the coming year.

Human URL: https://notthelivesite.com/q/explain-why-mp-trades-the-way-it-does-a-factor-study-of-what-q_6a932ae24f43776c15
Machine URL: https://notthelivesite.com/ai/q/explain-why-mp-trades-the-way-it-does-a-factor-study-of-what-q_6a932ae24f43776c15

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